A new CNN poll showed Trump 34 points underwater among U.S. adults, and the damage is spreading through the whole Republican machine as the 2026 midterm election looks worse for the GOP than its two worst midterms in the 21st century, 2006 and 2018.
The numbers are brutal. Trump’s economic approval rating in the new CNN poll was 27%, with 73% disapproving, for a net of minus-46. CNN’s Harry Enten found that Trump’s net approval rating on foreign affairs was minus-42, worse than any president since at least Ronald Reagan. The same political class that sells itself as competent and indispensable is watching its own brand rot in public.
Who Pays for the Mess
Voters are the ones carrying the bill. The CNN poll showed that 68% said the economy is "extremely important" to their vote, up from 44% in 2018 and 32% in 2006. Today, the economy is rated as at least "somewhat good" by just 28% of Americans, while CNN said other economic indicators are hovering around all-time lows. That’s the material reality underneath all the campaign theater.
Trump’s decline has outpaced the collapse seen in 2018 and 2006. Back in 2018 around this point, Trump was generally between 13 and 15 points underwater. In 2006, Bush was 15 points underwater in a late September CNN poll, while Gallup data around that time showed him between 7 and 22 points underwater. Data journalist G. Elliott Morris said Trump appears to be the most unpopular president on the eve of a midterm in modern history. The system keeps producing the same spectacle: leaders overreach, ordinary people absorb the fallout, and the parties scramble to manage the wreckage.
War, Gas Prices, and the Cost of Rule
The Iran war is more unpopular than Iraq was in 2006, the analysis said. The new CNN poll showed Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war by 47 points and say the war wasn’t worth it by 52 points. Back in 2006, both Bush’s approval on the war and Americans’ support for the war were about 30 points underwater at their worst. The article noted there aren’t boots on the ground and there haven’t been large numbers of U.S. troop deaths, but the war still lands on people through high domestic gas prices, the everyday tax of empire.
The comparison to 2006 is ugly for the GOP. In that year, an unpopular Middle Eastern war cost George W. Bush dearly. In 2018, voters balked at the upending of historic norms and the chaotic style of a new president named Donald Trump. Now Trump’s foreign-policy diplomacy and war posture are dragging the party into another midterm disaster zone, with the same institutions asking for trust after setting the fire.
Another key finding in the CNN poll was that 44% of registered voters said their vote is meant to send a message of opposition to Trump, compared with 19% who said it would send a message of support. In 2018, it was 38% opposition and 25% support. In 2006, the numbers were 36% and 15%, a 21-point split, compared with a 25-point split today. Elections keep getting framed as choice, but the numbers show a lot of people are using the ballot box to register disgust with the people already in charge.
The Parties Still Sell the Same Trap
The generic ballot has not tipped toward Democrats as much as they would like, at least not yet. Democrats lead by eight points in the most recent CNN poll, compared with between 9 and 12 points around this point in 2018 and between 13 and 18 points in 2006. The article points to one possible reason: the Democratic Party’s brand is still poor. The July CNN poll showed just 30% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, its worst number ahead of a midterm since at least 1994. That was no better than the GOP’s 31% favorable rating.
So the supposed opposition party isn’t exactly inspiring confidence. In 2018, Democrats had a slightly better image than Republicans, at 46% favorable for Democrats to 40% favorable for Republicans. In 2006, the gap was larger, at 56% to 44%. The analysis said there are signs Democrats are expanding their generic ballot lead and that many undecided voters appear gettable, but for now every other major measure appears very bad for Trump and the GOP.
That’s the whole rotten setup in plain view. The rulers fight over the machinery, the public gets the costs, and the polls measure how much punishment people are willing to hand back.