President Donald Trump has become the most unpopular president on the eve of a midterm election in modern history, according to data journalist G. Elliott Morris, as Americans register deep dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and the Iran war. A new CNN poll shows Trump 34 points underwater among U.S. adults, with the CNN Poll of Polls showing him 29 points underwater—a dramatic deterioration from his standing eight years ago.
The numbers paint a stark picture for Republicans heading into November. Back in 2018 around this point, Trump was generally between 13 and 15 points underwater. In 2006, when an unpopular Middle Eastern war cost George W. Bush dearly, Bush was 15 points underwater in a late September CNN poll, while Gallup data around that time showed him between 7 and 22 points underwater. Trump's current standing is worse than both.
Economic Pain Drives Voter Anger
Trump's economic approval rating tells an even grimmer story for the GOP. The new CNN poll showed just 27% approval on the economy, with 73% disapproving—a net of minus-46. That's a catastrophic collapse from 2018, when his economic approval rating was generally around 50% and usually in positive territory. Bush's net approval on the economy 20 years ago was between minus-18 and minus-25.
Only 28% of Americans view the economy as at least "somewhat good" today. That compares with 69% in 2018 and 59% in 2006, according to CNN polling. Other economic indicators are hovering around all-time lows, according to CNN's Alicia Wallace. Voters aren't just suffering—they're prioritizing the issue. While 44% said the economy was "extremely important" to their vote in 2018 and 32% said the same in 2006, today that number has surged to 68%.
Iran War Even More Unpopular Than Iraq
The Iran war is proving more toxic politically than the Iraq war was in 2006. Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the war by 47 points and say the war wasn't worth it by 52 points, according to the new CNN poll. Back in 2006, both Bush's approval on the war and Americans' support for the war were about 30 points underwater at their worst.
CNN's Harry Enten found that Trump's net approval rating on foreign affairs was minus-42, worse than any president since at least Ronald Reagan. There's a real question whether Iran is as big an issue as Iraq was, given that there aren't boots on the ground and there haven't been large numbers of U.S. troop deaths. The main issue people complain about today is high domestic gas prices. But similar numbers called the wars "extremely important" to their vote in 2006, at 46%, and today, at 48%.
Voters Want to Send a Message
Another key finding shows the depth of anti-Trump sentiment. The CNN poll found that 44% of registered voters said their vote is meant to send a message of opposition to Trump, compared with just 19% who said it would send a message of support. That's a 25-point split. In 2018, it was 38% opposition and 25% support. In 2006, the numbers were 36% and 15%, a 21-point split.
Democratic Brand Still Struggles
The generic ballot hasn't tipped toward Democrats as much as they would like, at least not yet. Democrats lead by eight points in the most recent CNN poll, compared with between 9 and 12 points around this point in 2018 and between 13 and 18 points in 2006.
One possible reason is that the Democratic Party's brand is still poor. A July CNN poll—two months ago—showed just 30% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, its worst number ahead of a midterm since at least 1994. That was no better than the GOP's 31% favorable rating. By contrast, Democrats had a slightly better image than Republicans in 2018, at 46% favorable for Democrats to 40% favorable for Republicans, and the gap was larger in 2006, at 56% to 44%.
There are signs Democrats are expanding their generic ballot lead and that many undecided voters appear gettable. But for now every other major measure appears very bad for Trump and the GOP. The 2026 midterm election is looking like it could be even worse for the GOP than the party's two worst midterm elections in the 21st century, 2006 and 2018, by several metrics.
Why This Matters:
These polling numbers reflect real hardship in American households—families struggling with economic pressures and the costs of a war many didn't support. When 68% of voters say the economy is extremely important and only 28% think it's even somewhat good, that's not just political dissatisfaction—it's people worried about paying bills and filling gas tanks. The historic unpopularity of this presidency suggests voters are demanding accountability for policies that have left them worse off. If these trends hold, the election could deliver a mandate for a different direction—one that prioritizes working families' economic security and a more restrained foreign policy. The question is whether Democrats can capitalize on voter frustration despite their own brand challenges, or whether dissatisfaction alone will be enough to drive change.