The Republican Party confronts potentially catastrophic losses in the 2026 midterm elections as President Donald Trump's approval ratings sink to historic lows, driven primarily by voter fury over economic conditions and an unpopular war with Iran.
Trump's net approval stands 34 points underwater among U.S. adults in a new CNN poll, with the CNN Poll of Polls showing him 29 points underwater. That's dramatically worse than his standing eight years ago during the 2018 midterms, when he was between 13 and 15 points underwater. It's also worse than George W. Bush's position 20 years ago in 2006, when a late September CNN poll showed him 15 points underwater. Data journalist G. Elliott Morris said Trump appears to be the most unpopular president on the eve of a midterm in modern history.
Economic Discontent Drives Voter Anger
The economic numbers tell a stark story. Trump's economic approval rating in the new CNN poll was 27%, with 73% disapproving, for a net of minus-46. That's a stunning reversal from eight years ago, when his economic approval rating was generally around 50% and usually in positive territory. Bush's net approval on the economy 20 years ago was between minus-18 and minus-25.
Only 28% of Americans view the economy as at least "somewhat good" today. That compares to 69% in 2018 and 59% in 2006, according to CNN polling. Other economic indicators are hovering around all-time lows, according to CNN's Alicia Wallace. Voters aren't just pessimistic—they're prioritizing the issue. While 44% said the economy was "extremely important" to their vote in 2018 and 32% said the same in 2006, today it's 68%.
Iran War Compounds Republican Problems
The Iran war has become a significant drag on Trump's standing. The new CNN poll showed Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the war by 47 points and say the war wasn't worth it by 52 points. Those numbers are worse than Iraq was in 2006, when both Bush's approval on the war and Americans' support for the war were about 30 points underwater at their worst.
CNN's Harry Enten found that Trump's net approval rating on foreign affairs was minus-42, worse than any president since at least Ronald Reagan. There's a real question whether Iran is as big an issue as Iraq was, given that there aren't boots on the ground and there haven't been large numbers of U.S. troop deaths. The main issue people complain about today is high domestic gas prices. But similar numbers called the wars "extremely important" to their vote in 2006, at 46%, and today, at 48%.
Voter Motivation Tilts Against GOP
Another key finding in the CNN poll was that 44% of registered voters said their vote is meant to send a message of opposition to Trump, compared with 19% who said it would send a message of support. In 2018, it was 38% opposition and 25% support. In 2006, the numbers were 36% and 15%, a 21-point split, compared with a 25-point split today.
The generic ballot has not tipped toward Democrats as much as they would like, at least not yet. Democrats lead by eight points in the most recent CNN poll, compared with between 9 and 12 points around this point in 2018 and between 13 and 18 points in 2006.
Democratic Brand Remains Weak
One possible reason is that the Democratic Party's brand is still poor. The July CNN poll, from two months ago, showed just 30% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, its worst number ahead of a midterm since at least 1994. That was no better than the GOP's 31% favorable rating.
By contrast, Democrats had a slightly better image than Republicans in 2018, at 46% favorable for Democrats to 40% favorable for Republicans, and the gap was larger in 2006, at 56% to 44%. There are signs Democrats are expanding their generic ballot lead and that many undecided voters appear gettable, but for now every other major measure appears very bad for Trump and the GOP.
Why This Matters:
These numbers reveal a fundamental challenge for conservative governance: when economic conditions deteriorate and foreign conflicts become costly, voters punish the party in power regardless of broader policy achievements. The Republican Party's two worst midterm elections in the 21st century were in 2006 and 2018. In 2006, an unpopular Middle Eastern war cost George W. Bush dearly. In 2018, voters balked at the upending of historic norms and the chaotic style of a new president named Donald Trump. The 2026 midterm election is looking like it could be even worse for the GOP than those two cycles by several metrics. Yet the Democratic Party's own brand weakness suggests voters aren't embracing progressive alternatives—they're simply rejecting current leadership. That creates an opening for Republicans to focus on economic solutions and fiscal discipline, but the window is closing rapidly.