NOAA is sending four wind-powered, unmanned Saildrones toward the equator to study a powerful El Niño. The federal research campaign, though, will fall well short of the planes, ships and aircraft the agency deployed in 2016. Forecasters say the event could become the biggest yet, with effects reaching millions of people. The ocean is warming, and the public’s ability to understand what comes next depends on a research apparatus constrained by budgets and staffing.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, warned that the event may harm people even as it gives scientists a rare chance to study the climate pattern. “I almost hesitate to call it an opportunity, given that it’s likely going to harm a lot of people around the world. But from a scientific perspective, it is a big natural experiment,” he said. Then he summed up the federal outlook: “I’m not super optimistic about anything happening quickly on the federal level these days.”
A smaller federal response
The Saildrones will spend four months measuring ocean temperatures and other data. Other research projects depend on Congress passing a budget, and NOAA says this effort won't match the 2016 deployment. Annarita Mariotti of NOAA’s Climate Program Office said the agency hopes to spend $2 million to $5 million on research to improve observation and prediction.
The government is operating under a continuing resolution through Dec. 11. NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations says it has no specific El Niño research missions planned. The event is nearing its winter peak in November and December.
Ten weather and climate researchers who spoke with NPR called the record-breaking El Niño an important case study. El Niño can bring destructive rainstorms and floods to some regions, and severe droughts to others. Better forecasts, delivered earlier, can help communities prepare and respond, and may save lives. Researchers also want to learn how El Niño forms, and whether climate change and emissions from burning fossil fuels are making these events more intense.
The last strong El Niño research campaign showed what a rapid federal mobilization could look like. In January 2016, NOAA released weather balloons twice a day on the Pacific island of Kiritimati, near the equator. During a month-long cruise, a NOAA research ship launched balloons eight times per day, while a NOAA research plane made 22 flights across the Pacific, dropping small parachute-equipped instruments into storms.
Researchers also used NASA’s Global Hawk, an unmanned long-range aircraft originally slated for hurricane research flights. Because El Niño years bring less Atlantic hurricane activity, researchers could redirect flights to the Pacific. They sent data to weather-forecast models in real time to try to improve U.S. winter storm predictions.
Staff losses and budget fights
NOAA’s research capacity is under strain. Since Trump began his second term, the agency has lost more than 2,000 staff, largely through retirements and firings. Data from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management show a roughly 20% staff loss.
For the second year in a row, the Trump administration is seeking to eliminate NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which studies climate patterns such as El Niño. Its budget proposal “eliminates all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes” in order to focus “on NOAA’s public safety mission,” and would transfer some research to the National Weather Service. Congress’ budget deal preserved the office last year, while transferring some of its budget to the National Weather Service.
The administration is also seeking cuts to climate research across NOAA, including programs it described as programs that “spread baseless environmental alarm.” Earlier this year, the administration announced it would begin removing the Ocean Observatories Initiative, which provides sea-temperature data important during El Niño. The decision was reversed this summer after the scientific community pushed back. For now, NOAA’s research effort remains substantially smaller than in 2016, while additional projects await a budget decision.
What the missing observations cost
Randy Dole, who helped lead the campaign at NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory and retired in 2016, said researchers need observations while an event is happening. “You can do research after events are over for years or decades, but you have to get the observations during the event,” he said. “That was a critical consideration, and so we were going to do whatever we could, to the best of our ability, to get data that could be used both at that current time and in the future.”
The 2015-16 event also showed that forecasts can miss badly in different directions. California prepared for damaging rain and flooding that didn't materialize; precipitation was below average there for most of the winter. South Carolina experienced catastrophic flooding. As the research campaign ended, the team hoped it would serve as a blueprint for the next super El Niño. Dole said: “The recommendation was: let’s pre-plan for next time, because there will be a next time. We should be aware that nature’s loading the dice for us and exactly what comes up, we don’t know.”
Researchers say aircraft measurements can improve forecasts of atmospheric rivers, storms that bring heavy rain and have caused some of California’s most destructive floods. Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said readings from planes flying in and near storms improve forecasts of where storms will hit the West Coast and how heavy the rain will be. His project has partnered with NOAA to collect data using its “hurricane hunter” aircraft. He expects that to continue this winter and hopes for as much flight time as possible. “That is a solid request that’s been made, and it’s being considered, and it’s in a very tight budget environment,” he said.
Michael McPhaden, senior scientist at the University of Washington and a NOAA scientist until earlier this year, said El Niño’s transition to La Niña involves interactions among the ocean, wind and atmosphere that remain uncertain. “We need more examples of well-sampled El Niños to develop a better understanding of how they work and to improve our predictive skill,” he said. McPhaden added: “Field data is irreplaceable. It’s an absolutely essential part of the mix of information that we use to draw conclusions about consequential phenomena like El Niño and La Niña.” Forecasts may improve, but researchers have to make the measurements first.