A record-breaking El Niño is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and federal forecasters warn it could become the most powerful ever recorded, affecting millions of people worldwide. Yet the agency charged with studying this climate event now operates with a fraction of the resources it deployed a decade ago. Budget uncertainty and major staff losses have left NOAA struggling to mount an adequate response.
The contrast is stark. During the strong 2015-16 El Niño, NOAA launched a rapid-response research campaign. It sent weather balloons up twice daily from the Pacific island of Kiritimati, dispatched research ships across the Pacific to drop instruments into storms eight times per day, and flew 22 research missions to measure atmospheric formation in real time. Today, NOAA is sending just four unmanned Saildrones on a four-month mission to measure ocean temperatures—a dramatic drop in observational capacity.
Researchers and forecasters say the timing couldn't be worse. El Niño brings destructive rainstorms and floods to some regions while causing severe droughts elsewhere. Better, earlier forecasts could help communities prepare and respond, potentially saving lives. But the current research effort depends on Congress passing a budget. NOAA's Office of Marine and Aviation Operations says no specific El Niño research missions are planned because the government is operating under a continuing resolution through December 11.
The Stakes of Lost Observation
Ten weather and climate researchers told NPR that this record-breaking event offers a critical opportunity to understand how El Niño forms and whether climate change is intensifying these patterns. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, called it "a big natural experiment." He cautioned, "I'm not super optimistic about anything happening quickly on the federal level these days."
The scientific case for strong research is clear. During the 2015-16 event, improved forecasts helped California prepare for predicted damaging rain and flooding, though precipitation ultimately fell below average. South Carolina, however, suffered catastrophic flooding. The lesson was clear: collecting better data during the event itself leads to better predictions, which can save lives and reduce economic damage.
Randy Dole helped lead NOAA's campaign at the Physical Sciences Laboratory. He stressed that real-time observation can't be replaced. "You can do research after events are over for years or decades, but you have to get the observations during the event," he said. His team began planning six months before field research started, an unusually short timeline that called for extraordinary institutional commitment. Chris Fairall, who worked on the 2015-16 project at NOAA, said such rapid mobilization "almost never happens because the big field observation programs are typically five-year planning processes."
Research on atmospheric rivers—storms that bring heavy rain and have caused some of California's most destructive floods—shows why aircraft observations matter. Researchers at UC San Diego found that readings from planes flying in and near storms improve forecasts of where they'll hit the West Coast and how heavy rainfall will be. Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography, explained: "We really need the satellite data, but it doesn't give the precision and detail of how strong the atmospheric river is, what its structure is, how much water vapor it's carrying. We've proven out that these careful measurements from the aircraft offshore make a big difference for the forecast's skill for the West Coast."
Institutional Decline at a Critical Moment
NOAA's shrinking research capacity reflects wider strain at the agency. Since Trump began his second term, NOAA has lost more than 2,000 staff members, largely through retirements and firings—a roughly 20% workforce reduction, according to data from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management. For the second year in a row, the Trump administration is seeking to eliminate NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which studies climate patterns such as El Niño. The administration's budget proposal would "eliminate all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes," steering resources toward what it calls NOAA's "public safety mission."
Earlier this year, the administration announced plans to remove the Ocean Observatories Initiative, which supplies sea-temperature data crucial during El Niño events. The administration reversed that decision this summer after major pushback from the scientific community. NOAA hopes to spend $2 million to $5 million on El Niño research to improve observation and prediction. The request remains under review in what Ralph calls "a very tight budget environment."
Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the University of Washington and a NOAA scientist until earlier this year, described what's at stake. "There's still a lot of uncertainty about how those processes work," he said, referring to the ocean-wind-atmosphere interactions that govern El Niño behavior. "We need more examples of well-sampled El Niños to develop a better understanding of how they work and to improve our predictive skill." He added: "Field data is irreplaceable. It's an absolutely essential part of the mix of information that we use to draw conclusions about consequential phenomena like El Niño and La Niña."
Climate change has already warmed the planet by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), and the ocean has absorbed most of that heat. Some studies have found that climate change is already making El Niños more intense. McPhaden said, "This big event may be connecting the dots for us in a way that is even more compelling about the fingerprint of climate change."
Randy Dole advised NOAA after the 2015-16 campaign to plan in advance for the next super El Niño. "We should be aware that nature's loading the dice for us and exactly what comes up, we don't know," he said. That planning hasn't happened. NOAA instead faces the current crisis with less capacity, uncertain funding, and a shrinking workforce—just when reliable data and institutional expertise matter most to vulnerable communities worldwide.
Why This Matters:
El Niño affects weather thousands of miles from the Pacific, bringing floods to some regions and drought to others. Communities from California to South Carolina and beyond rely on accurate forecasts to prepare emergency response and protect lives. Today's research effort is far smaller than it was a decade ago, while the atmospheric stakes have grown. When federal agencies lose the ability to observe and predict climate phenomena, communities least equipped to respond on their own bear the burden. Scaling back research during a record-breaking event raises a wider question about federal priorities: will the government invest in scientific infrastructure that protects public welfare, or retreat from that role? Data gathered in real time during this El Niño could improve forecasts for years. That opportunity exists only now. Once the event passes, the moment is gone.