A record-breaking El Niño is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and federal forecasters warn it could exceed any in recorded history. NOAA, however, is mounting a substantially smaller research effort than it did 10 years ago during the 2015-16 campaign, deploying just four unmanned Saildrones while the agency's broader research agenda awaits congressional budget action.
The gap between scientific need and available resources reflects a familiar tension: a massive natural disaster is approaching, while federal budget constraints prevent the coordinated, rapid-response science researchers say could save lives through better forecasting.
NOAA's current plan depends on $2 million to $5 million in research funding to improve observation and prediction. The agency operates under a continuing resolution through December 11, and its Office of Marine and Aviation Operations has scheduled no specific El Niño research missions. Four wind-powered, unmanned Saildrones now anchor a scaled-down effort, unlike the aircraft, research ships, and coordinated deployments used in 2015-16.
The 2015-16 Blueprint
A decade ago, forecasters detected a developing strong El Niño in 2015, and NOAA mounted an aggressive rapid-response campaign. In January 2016, the agency released weather balloons twice daily from Kiritimati, a Pacific island near the equator. A NOAA research ship spent month-long cruises launching balloons eight times per day. A NOAA research plane made 22 flights across the Pacific, dropping small parachute-equipped instruments into storms to measure formation. NASA's Global Hawk, an unmanned long-range aircraft originally designed for hurricane research, shifted to the Pacific after Atlantic hurricane activity dropped during the El Niño year.
Randy Dole led the campaign at NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory before retiring in 2016. He explained the urgency: "You can do research after events are over for years or decades, but you have to get the observations during the event." The team began planning just six months before field research, an unusually short timeline for a coordinated NOAA campaign. Chris Fairall worked on the project before retiring during the Biden administration. He noted that "big field observation programs are typically five-year planning processes. It involves getting research aircraft, research vessels, satellites and all kinds of research plans have to be drawn up."
The 2015-16 effort improved forecasts. California prepared for damaging rain and flooding that ultimately did not materialize; precipitation was below average there for most of the winter. South Carolina experienced catastrophic flooding. The research team urged officials to plan in advance for the next super El Niño, knowing such events would return.
Staffing and Budget Pressures
NOAA's research capacity has contracted sharply. Since Trump began his second term, the agency has lost more than 2,000 staff members, largely through retirements and firings—a roughly 20% reduction, according to U.S. Office of Personnel Management data. For the second consecutive year, the Trump administration is seeking to eliminate NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which studies climate patterns including El Niño. The administration's budget proposal would "eliminate all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes" to focus "on NOAA's public safety mission," transferring some research functions to the National Weather Service.
Congress preserved the office last year while moving some of its budget to the National Weather Service. The administration also wants cuts to climate research across NOAA, including programs it describes as ones that "spread baseless environmental alarm."
In an earlier move that drew pushback, the administration announced plans to remove the Ocean Observatories Initiative, which supplies sea-temperature data critical during El Niño. The administration reversed that decision this summer after objections from the scientific community.
What Real-Time Data Delivers
Ten weather and climate researchers told NPR this record-breaking El Niño offers an important case study. El Niño occurs when a large area of the eastern Pacific Ocean warms around the equator, releasing heat that shifts atmospheric patterns and weather around the globe. The phenomenon brings destructive rainstorms and floods to some regions while triggering severe droughts elsewhere. Better, earlier forecasts help communities prepare and may save lives.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, acknowledged the stakes: "I almost hesitate to call it an opportunity, given that it's likely going to harm a lot of people around the world. But from a scientific perspective, it is a big natural experiment." He also observed, "I'm not super optimistic about anything happening quickly on the federal level these days."
Real-time observations show their value in measuring atmospheric rivers—storms that bring heavy rain and cause some of California's most destructive floods. UC San Diego researchers found that aircraft readings significantly improve forecasts of where storms will hit the West Coast and how much rain they will bring. Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography, explained: "We really need the satellite data, but it doesn't give the precision and detail of how strong the atmospheric river is, what its structure is, how much water vapor it's carrying."
Ralph's project works with NOAA using "hurricane hunter" aircraft. He expects the collaboration to continue this winter but noted the constraints: "That is a solid request that's been made, and it's being considered, and it's in a very tight budget environment."
Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the University of Washington and former NOAA scientist, emphasized the broader need: "Field data is irreplaceable. It's an absolutely essential part of the mix of information that we use to draw conclusions about consequential phenomena like El Niño and La Niña." He added that scientists still don't know enough about the transition from El Niño to La Niña; better-sampled examples could improve predictive skill.
El Niño occurs every two to seven years; super El Niños happen far less often and rarely receive detailed study. The first strong El Niño measured by satellites occurred 43 years ago in 1982-83, though a volcanic eruption obscured the data. The current super El Niño is approaching its winter peak in November and December.
Why This Matters:
The clash between scientific opportunity and fiscal constraint exposes real trade-offs in government resource allocation. NOAA's staffing losses and budget restrictions mean the agency can't mount the comprehensive data-gathering operation researchers say could improve forecasts of destructive storms and flooding. The first strong satellite-measured El Niño occurred 43 years ago; the 2015-16 campaign, mounted 10 years ago, established a template for rapid response. Yet today's continuing resolution, staffing losses exceeding 20%, and proposed budget cuts to oceanic and atmospheric research suggest the window for comprehensive observation may close before this super El Niño reaches its peak. Whether private sector partnerships, university research, or streamlined federal coordination can make up for reduced NOAA capacity remains an open question—with significant consequences for communities facing destructive weather in coming months.