Spooks and Envoys Haggle Over Ukraine in Abu Dhabi

A Ukrainian delegation has left for Abu Dhabi, where it will sit down with American and Russian envoys on Tuesday and Wednesday, November 10-11, 2026. The man leading it is Rustem Umierov, Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. Posting on Facebook on 9 November, he said the group had departed for the UAE, a venue chosen for a war that is being negotiated nowhere near the people living in it.

Look at who's coming. Ukraine sends Umierov, Davyd Arakhamiia, Serhii Kyslytsia, Vadym Skibitskyi of Defence Intelligence, and Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Office of the President. Russia sends former Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky, diplomat Mikhail Galuzin, spy chief Igor Kostyukov and army general Yuri Zhygarlovsky. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner head the US side. That's a table of intelligence chiefs, generals and presidential envoys, deciding the shape of a country. Trump himself says a deal is very close and would leave Ukraine in a "little bit different shape," without saying what shape, or who gets cut off.

Who Gets a Chair

The seating chart is already a fight. The Kremlin said on Monday that the talks would not include European officials. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot had said on Sunday that officials from France, Britain, Germany, NATO and the European Commission would be present. An EU official told AFP that national security officials for the bloc, NATO, France, Germany and the United Kingdom would be on site, but it was unclear how they would be involved.

Umierov was blunt about the Brussels end of it. "We will hold separate coordination meetings with our European partners," he said, adding that, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has directed, "we are doing everything possible to ensure Europe is part of the diplomatic process." So European security advisers, the NATO secretary general's chief of staff and representatives of the European Commission and Council will fly to the Gulf to be coordinated, possibly in a side room. Witkoff and Kushner will meet them first. Euronews reports that engaging directly with the Russians, never done before, remains on the table. Ursula von der Leyen, for her part, reported a "good" phone call with Zelenskyy on 9 November about Black Sea security and the talks.

What's on the Table, and What Isn't

The people with the most at stake aren't invited. Budanov put the humanitarian piece plainly: "Prisoner exchanges need to be intensified. I hope the dialogue in the UAE will deliver practical results and we will be able to agree on the next stages of bringing our people home." Those are the stakes for families: whether captives come back. Meanwhile Al Jazeera notes Russia occupies roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, that Trump has urged Kyiv to cede territory, and that the US signed a deal last month to buy Russian diesel. Territory gets traded, fuel gets bought, and nobody who lives on the land gets a vote.

The forecasts are bleak. Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko of the Servant of the People party said: "I don't expect any tangible progress in the Abu Dhabi talks. The reason is simple and remains the same – Putin has absolutely no intention to negotiate seriously." Matthew Boyse of the Hudson Institute said Putin has not budged from his "my way or the highway" position. Olexiy Haran of the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy said only technical issues, such as grain supplies, a Black Sea ceasefire, an energy ceasefire and perhaps another prisoner exchange, could be negotiated. Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief, saw little sign of Russian goodwill, adding that Moscow had already signed numerous agreements. A US official, by contrast, said Russia and Ukraine are showing flexibility on territory.

A Fourth Round of the Same Play

Al Jazeera describes this as a fourth round of US-mediated talks in 2026, including two earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi, and the first such talks in nine months for the US envoys. Ukraine doesn't expect a breakthrough in the first round, and hopes are higher for the second, Ukrainska Pravda reports. The base facts show Istanbul talks at the start of the conflict, four years ago, and Crimea's annexation 12 years ago. The pattern holds: delegations of spies and envoys convene in comfortable venues, the maps get argued over, and the ordinary people those maps contain wait for prisoner lists.