Abu Dhabi Talks: Brussels Begs for a Seat at the Table

US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia open in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, November 10, and the first thing to settle is not peace. It's who gets a chair. The Kremlin's Dmitry Peskov put it flatly: "What will happen in Abu Dhabi in the coming days is trilateral negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United States." Europe, in other words, is waiting in the corridor.

The talks run through Wednesday, November 11. They're the first trilateral meeting since February, about nine months ago, and they come in the fifth year of the conflict. Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent Washington. Witkoff says the agenda covers future security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian issues. Nobody has announced a delegate for the people being bombed or conscripted who isn't a spy chief, a presidential aide or a deputy foreign minister.

The Brussels Scramble

The European Commission and the European Council are sending a joint team of senior officials, led by Bjoern Seibert, von der Leyen's chief of cabinet, and Anna-Maria Boura, chief foreign policy advisor to Council President António Costa. National security advisers from the E3, France, Germany and the UK, will go too. NATO sends Geoffrey van Leeuwen from the Secretary General's office. Italy will also be represented, according to Rustem Umerov.

What will they actually do? A senior EU diplomat told the Kyiv Independent the exact format remains "unclear." An EU representative speaking anonymously said the advisers would be "in the building or nearby" but would not take part directly in the negotiations. A German official called the meeting a "starting point" and said "the format will be determined as the discussions progress." Von der Leyen, for her part, announced: "The EU will be present alongside our partners." Present. In the building. Nearby.

Paula Pinho, the Commission's chief spokesperson, was blunter about the principle at stake: "Any European security framework is up to the European Union to decide, because it's a matter of its competence." Notice whose competence she means. Not the people living under the drones, nor the people being drafted into the trenches.

Carving Up a Continent, Again

The real fight is over who designs the postwar order. Rubio says the one constant in every conversation has been "what is the post-war security infrastructure of Ukraine and, more broadly, of the European continent going to look like." Kushner wants "an enduring framework for long-term European security and stability." Zelenskyy called Kushner's long post on reframing Europe's security architecture "dangerous" and warned against a "Yalta 2.0."

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski gave the game away: "The last thing we want is Western Europe dealing with Russia, over the heads of the East Europeans." Italy's Giorgia Meloni fired off a letter to Costa complaining about "disarray" in diplomatic formats and demanding a special European envoy. Costa put EU representation on the agenda for the informal leaders' meeting in Dublin on Friday, November 13, four days away. Capitals squabble over the seating plan while E3 advisers prepare to brief a wider group on Thursday at the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Dublin.

The Russian side brings Vladimir Medinsky, Admiral Igor Kostyukov, Yuri Ushakov and Deputy Foreign Ministers Mikhail Galuzin and Sergei Ryabkov. Ryabkov put forward the December 2021 ultimatum demanding NATO roll back troops from eastern Europe, nearly five years ago. Carnegie's Alexander Gabuev told AFP: "We don't know if that is still relevant and where the red lines are." Ukraine's delegation, led by Umerov, includes Kyrylo Budanov, Davyd Arakhamia, Serhii Kyslytsia and Vadym Skibitskyi.

The Military Backdrop

While diplomats haggle, the Franco-British-led coalition of the willing is running a military exercise in Poland from Monday until 22 November, with 2,800 troops from 11 countries. Talks and drills on the same calendar. Trump, who said he could end the war in a day, now says "there's going to be a big agreement ... it might involve all of Europe," and that Ukraine would emerge "with a little bit different shape." The Irish Times rates the chances of a breakthrough as "Slim."

What Ordinary People Get

Volodymyr Fesenko told AFP Ukrainians are "very pessimistic," and that Kyiv will push for partial or local ceasefires, pointing to a recent Kherson-region ceasefire as "a very positive precedent." The Kremlin has so far refused broader ones. Von der Leyen backs a ceasefire covering food and energy infrastructure. Ukraine needs more Patriot missiles, and the US has halted immediate delivery.

That's the shape of the day. Envoys, spy chiefs and chiefs of cabinet negotiate the continent's future in a Gulf hotel, and the argument that consumes Europe's capitals is whether their own officials will be in the room or merely down the hall.