Climate-related disasters affected more than 2.5 million people in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe in 2021 and 2022 alone, as rising temperatures and extreme weather transform environmental pressures into security threats across the continent. Failed harvests, shrinking water supplies and increasingly severe weather are leaving millions hungry and forcing communities from their homes, creating conditions that armed groups and extremists are exploiting.
The crisis isn't just environmental. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, droughts and floods are reducing crop and livestock production while intensifying competition for land and water. In the Sahel, west Africa and the Horn of Africa, these pressures have heightened tensions between farmers and pastoralists who've shared these landscapes for generations. Across southern Africa, repeated droughts have caused crop failures, livestock losses, food shortages and falling household incomes.
When Climate Disasters Fuel Insecurity
The human displacement that follows climate disasters adds pressure on jobs and public services in areas that can't absorb the influx. Pastoralists are changing their traditional routes to find water and grazing land, sometimes increasing tensions between communities and across borders. Armed groups can exploit anger and hardship in places where livelihoods have collapsed and government support is limited. This has happened in Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Many African countries face peace and security problems that go far beyond war, including political instability, violent extremist groups, organised crime and armed militias. Weak governments, corruption and poor quality public services make unstable countries worse. Climate change is pouring fuel on these existing fires.
A Continent-Wide Framework Takes Shape
African governments are developing the Common African Position on Climate, Peace and Security, described as the first ever continent-wide framework on these issues. The framework is being developed by the African Union and its member states to help African countries deal with the ways climate change is making conflict and insecurity worse, and to give governments a shared approach so they can work together on peace, security, disaster response and development.
In February 2026, the African Union Peace and Security Council called on experts from all member states to complete it, preferably during the second half of this year. It said the position must reflect conditions in different countries and regions, and be developed through broad consultation. Agreement on paper won't be enough, according to researchers who say the position needs an implementation plan setting out what must be done, who will do it and how progress will be measured.
What Governments Can Do
National governments can include climate-related security risks in their development and climate adaptation plans, budgets, early warning systems and conflict prevention work. They should also review policies covering agriculture, water, land and disaster management to determine whether they reduce tensions over scarce resources or unintentionally make them worse.
Regional organisations can strengthen cross-border warnings about droughts, floods and displacement, and coordinate responses between countries. In the Horn of Africa, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development has already included climate, peace and security in its work and secured political support from its member states.
Governments must also fund this work through national budgets. The African Union, international partners and donors can direct additional funding towards places facing both severe climate threats and conflict or instability. There's no cost estimate yet because the Common African Position is still being finalised. Donors should support priorities set by African countries and strengthen existing institutions instead of creating competing initiatives.
The analysis comes from Katongo Seyuba, Researcher at Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and Gracsious Maviza, Gender and Migration Scientist and Regional Lead for Southern Africa in the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Team.
Why This Matters:
The intersection of climate change and conflict represents one of Africa's most urgent governance challenges, requiring coordinated public action across borders and sectors. When environmental disasters push millions from their homes and destroy livelihoods, weak government capacity and inadequate public services leave communities vulnerable to exploitation by armed groups. The Common African Position on Climate, Peace and Security offers a framework for collective response, but only if governments commit the resources and institutional reforms needed for implementation. Without coordinated early warning systems, cross-border cooperation and adequately funded adaptation programs, climate pressures will continue destabilizing already fragile regions. The framework's success depends on whether African governments and international partners prioritize the needs of affected communities over competing initiatives, and whether they build the public institutions capable of managing these interconnected crises.