A new continent-wide framework, the Common African Position on Climate, Peace and Security, is being developed by the African Union and its member states. This initiative aims to centralize responses to climate-induced conflict and displacement, effectively shifting national decision-making to a supranational body. It represents the first such framework across the continent.
Millions of people are already being forced from their homes across Africa, according to reports. Failed harvests, shrinking water supplies, and extreme weather events are making life increasingly difficult. These pressures contribute to widespread hunger.
Beyond war, many African nations grapple with severe peace and security challenges. Political instability, violent extremist groups, organized crime, and armed militias plague these regions. Weak governments, endemic corruption, and poor public services exacerbate these already unstable conditions.
Rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, droughts, and floods directly reduce crop and livestock production. This intensifies competition for vital land and water resources. In the Sahel, West Africa, and the Horn of Africa, these pressures have demonstrably heightened tensions between traditional farmers and pastoralists.
Southern Africa has endured repeated droughts, leading to widespread crop failures and significant livestock losses. These events have caused severe food shortages and a sharp decline in household incomes. Climate-related disasters affected over 2.5 million people in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe in 2021 and 2022 alone, five years ago and four years ago.
The Mechanism of Displacement
Climate disasters compel populations to move, seeking safety and employment. This mass displacement places immense pressure on jobs and public services in host communities. Pastoralists are altering their traditional migration routes in search of water and grazing land, which frequently increases tensions between communities and across national borders.
Armed groups exploit the anger and hardship that arise when livelihoods collapse and government support is absent. This pattern has been observed in Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The proposed framework seeks to manage these symptoms rather than address the root causes of elite failure.
Elite-Driven Consolidation
The African Union Peace and Security Council called on experts from all member states to finalize this framework in February 2026, the same year. They prefer completion during the second half of 2026. The Council stated the position must reflect diverse national and regional conditions and be developed through broad consultation. However, the very existence of a continent-wide mandate suggests a move away from national self-determination.
This framework aims to provide governments with a 'shared approach' for peace, security, disaster response, and development. Such language often masks a push for uniform policies that override local specificities. Agreement on paper won't suffice; an implementation plan detailing actions, responsibilities, and progress metrics is demanded.
National governments are expected to integrate climate-related security risks into their development and climate adaptation plans, budgets, early warning systems, and conflict prevention efforts. They must also review existing policies covering agriculture, water, land, and disaster management. The goal is to determine if these policies reduce resource tensions or inadvertently worsen them.
Regional organizations are tasked with strengthening cross-border warnings regarding droughts, floods, and displacement. They must also coordinate responses between countries. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development in the Horn of Africa has already incorporated climate, peace, and security into its work, securing political support from its member states.
Who Funds the Transformation?
Governments are expected to fund this work through national budgets. The African Union, international partners, and various donors are poised to direct additional funding towards areas facing both severe climate threats and conflict or instability. There is currently no cost estimate for the Common African Position, as it remains under finalization. Donors are advised to support priorities set by African countries and strengthen existing institutions, rather than creating competing initiatives.
The article was signed by Katongo Seyuba, a Researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and Gracsious Maviza, a Gender and Migration Scientist and Regional Lead for Southern Africa in the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Team. These affiliations highlight the involvement of transnational research bodies in shaping continental policy.