Aliko Dangote says demand for shares in his $1.6 billion Lagos refinery is “enormous.” Speaking to reporters in Nairobi on Tuesday, he said the response surprised him. “I didn’t know the depth of our capital markets until now, really, because we have never tested it,” he said. He gave no figures for demand.
Marketed as a “people’s IPO,” the offering would be Africa’s largest. It closes October 13, and Dangote’s lead financial advisers have underwritten $400 million. If investors buy more shares than offered, it could raise as much as $2.1 billion. The proceeds will fund a doubling of the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 billion barrels per day.
Retail Investors Pile In
The rush strained some of the platforms designed to handle it. Investors looking to buy shares temporarily disrupted some financial technology platforms. “We expected a wave of retail demand in the IPO, but in reality, it’s been more like a tsunami,” Richmond Bassey, chief executive of Nigerian fintech platform Bamboo, told Reuters. Bamboo recorded a 350% surge in new accounts in the week before the IPO opened. Bassey said the rate climbed further after the offer launched.
Construction of a 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery near Lamu, Kenya’s second deep-water port, is set to begin Wednesday. Dangote put the cost at $16 billion. Regional governments have received offers of a 30% stake, and countries investing, including Kenya and Rwanda, can pay for their equity over four years. “We have made it very simple and easy for them to fund their own equity,” Dangote said. Rwanda has requested a 10% stake, and the parties are discussing the request.
The plant will use crude from regional producers, including Kenya, as well as overseas suppliers in the Middle East and the United States. Dangote dismissed critics, including conservationists and local residents who have challenged the project in Kenya’s High Court. He said traders whose businesses would be disrupted were behind the opposition. “They will make money still, but they have to work hard,” he said.
Summits and Barriers
Governments are seeking their own ways to attract capital. Egypt opens its inaugural three-day Alamein Africa Forum on Friday. More than 20 heads of state and government representatives are expected, alongside business leaders, bankers and development institutions. Egyptian officials put the country’s investments across Africa at around $14 billion. The figure includes Tanzania’s $3 billion Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, which a consortium led by Egyptian companies built.
Cairo wants to restore its influence on a continent where China and Gulf states, particularly the United Arab Emirates, have become major players. It also wants support in its dispute with Ethiopia over the $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Talks haven’t resolved the dispute. “Our position on Egypt’s water security has not changed and will not change,” said Mohamed Abu Bakr Saleh, Egypt’s deputy foreign minister for African affairs. “It is an existential issue for Egypt.”
The figures help explain why deal-makers keep pushing. Trade within Africa totalled $192 billion in 2023, about 15 percent of the continent’s total trade. Asia’s share is above 55 percent, while Europe’s tops 70 percent. According to the UN, Africa attracted about $70 billion in foreign direct investment in 2025, compared with roughly $1.6 trillion globally.
At the UN General Assembly in New York, Oliver Alawuba, Group Managing Director/CEO of United Bank for Africa, described the barriers. “When you do business in Africa, you meet multiple regulations,” he said. “You deal with central banks, with several policies. Now these policies at times are a hindrance to capital.” UBA has about $30 billion in total assets. Currency issues make it difficult to bring capital back, he said, calling it “a big risk.” A Kenyan tea farmer selling to Ghana, he noted, has to go through dollars. “What we need to do for capital to flow is to bring down the walls,” he said.
Alawuba welcomed the African Continental Free Trade Area but said payment systems remain a hurdle. UBA is building a payment platform with several countries. It has also agreed with the trade area to establish a $6 billion fund supporting small and medium-sized enterprises. Alawuba met U.S. Export-Import Bank leadership to discuss trade finance and project financing, and spoke with World Bank Group President Ajay Banga about long-term capital for infrastructure and energy.
Capital Is Choosy
South Africa’s latest figures show how selective investors can be. Foreign direct investment inflows reached 49.8 billion rand ($3.03 billion) in the second quarter of 2026, up from 20.3 billion rand the previous quarter, the South African Reserve Bank said. A local telecommunications company’s receipt of debt funding from a non-resident parent company drove the increase. The bank didn’t identify the company.
Portfolio investment shifted to a 9.0 billion rand outflow from a 9.0 billion rand inflow. Non-residents sold 34.2 billion rand in domestic equities and bought 25.1 billion rand in domestic debt. The national government’s redemption of a $1.25 billion international bond partly offset those debt purchases.
Why This Matters:
Africa’s biggest financing stories this week involve private money, not communiqués. Dangote’s IPO is testing whether local capital markets can finance heavy industry. UBA’s chief says regulatory and currency barriers still block capital that’s ready to move. South Africa’s quarterly figures show how one corporate loan can swing headline investment while portfolio investors sell equities. Governments, meanwhile, are holding forums and, under Dangote’s Lamu plan, taking equity stakes with deferred payments. Egypt’s forum will test whether political summitry can produce deals. Investors will watch whether cross-border payments and currency rules get simpler, and whether a state-linked stake in a $16 billion refinery can withstand a court challenge.