A 2026 International Monetary Fund report estimates that coups “can reduce GDP growth by around 2.3 percentage points in the same year,” while coups in Africa cut investment by 14.3%. Those figures anchor a new analysis by economist and legal scholar John Mukum Mbaku, who argues military takeovers leave African countries poorer, less free and less stable than the governments they topple.
Published by The Conversation Africa and distributed by AllAfrica on 5 October 2026, Mbaku’s analysis challenges the standard coup-plotter’s pitch. Putschists, he notes, usually defend their actions by accusing governments of economic mismanagement, falling living standards or political instability. Mbaku doesn’t buy it. Positive change, he writes, comes through institutional reform, structural economic changes and engagement with civil society, including the people who create wealth and economic growth.
The Economic Toll
Investors need to know the rules won’t change overnight. That’s the core of Mbaku’s economic argument. Tax rules, environmental standards and laws governing business operations must remain steady, he writes, while courts need to be reliable, accessible and able to settle disputes. Clear, predictable legal frameworks allow long-term trade contracts to be enforced.
Coups wreck that predictability. They destabilise legal systems, discourage investment and strangle entrepreneurship, the very engine Mbaku says countries need to confront poverty and inequality. The IMF’s finding that economic damage can persist in subsequent years suggests the hit isn’t a one-time event. Military regimes, he writes, usually can’t deliver the regulatory reforms and legal and institutional stability needed to fight poverty and improve living standards.
Rule of Law Under Pressure
Constitutional democracies, Mbaku argues, protect human rights, respect the rule of law and limit government power. Coups reverse all three. Leaders become unaccountable to the constitution or the people, and rights violations become routine. Coup leaders often suspend or discard constitutions and bills of rights. Military regimes also carry out arbitrary detentions and torture.
Post-coup elites typically concentrate executive, legislative and judicial powers in military hands, Mbaku writes. They ban peaceful protests, censor media and jail critics without trial. They rule by decree, not through an elected legislature or independent judiciary. In 2023, Freedom House, an American non-governmental organisation that advocates for democracy, warned that a surge of coups in Africa threatened human rights and the rule of law.
Coups can spark more violence. Forceful changes of government can invite counter-coups, civil conflict and political violence, Mbaku writes, citing Egypt, Sudan and several Sahelian states.
Security and Social Fracture
Most African countries are ethnically and religiously diverse, and Mbaku says many post-independence governments never built institutions that help people live together peacefully. That failure has let majority factions tyrannise minorities. Coups make matters worse. Military elites may fill senior security posts with officers from their own ethnic group, a practice Mbaku says has occurred in Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria. Concentrating power in one faction can trigger security crises, and marginalised minorities may turn to violence to defend themselves, their resources and their political representation.
His studies of military and constitutional takeovers in Egypt, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, The Gambia and Sudan also found that coups encourage abuse of vulnerable groups, including women, children and ethnic or religious minorities.
The Prescription
Mbaku’s remedy relies on durable institutions, not strongmen. He calls for democratic cultures built on military control by elected civilian authorities, with regular elections so citizens can respond when a government fails. Armed forces should be professional and accountable to the constitution, and military education should cover human rights law and the duty to defend the constitution.
He also wants those who seize power held accountable. Coup leaders shouldn’t be allowed to run in elections meant to restore democratic order or hold responsible posts in state political institutions. The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance provides for this, Mbaku says, but the African Union hasn’t ensured it happens. He cites Egypt, where Abdel Fattah el-Sisi overthrew the democratically elected president Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and became president a year later. In Gabon, Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema led the 2023 coup, won the April 2025 presidential election and was then installed as president.
Mbaku also urges African states to ban coups, criminalise unconstitutional changes of government and establish mechanisms to prosecute perpetrators.
What Works
The public isn’t asking for soldiers. Afrobarometer surveys show strong opposition to military coups in Zambia (90%), Uganda (87%), Eswatini (85%) and Seychelles (85%). Countries that have avoided coups, Mbaku writes, generally developed strong constitutions and institutions, credible elections and professional armed forces accountable to civilian authority. In South Africa and Namibia, new governments brought armed forces under civilian oversight. Botswana and Mauritius paired good governance with economic development. Coups are harder to stage, he says, when political, military and economic institutions offer effective, peaceful ways to resolve grievances.
Why This Matters:
The numbers in Mbaku’s analysis carry a plain message for anyone weighing investment or aid in Africa: political stability and predictable law drive economic returns. A 2.3-point hit to GDP growth and a 14.3% drop in investment aren’t abstractions. They mean fewer jobs, thinner tax bases and weaker prospects for the entrepreneurs Mbaku says are needed to beat poverty. From a governance standpoint, durable, rules-based institutions and civilian-controlled militaries do more for ordinary people than promises of quick change from the barracks. The Afrobarometer figures suggest citizens already know it. The harder question Mbaku leaves open is whether regional bodies like the African Union will enforce the commitments they’ve already signed.