Military coups can strip elected institutions of executive, legislative and judicial power, leaving citizens unable to choose their leaders through elections, economist and legal scholar John Mukum Mbaku wrote in an analysis published by The Conversation Africa and distributed by AllAfrica. Dated 5 October 2026, his article examines the effects on peaceful coexistence, wealth creation, human rights and the rule of law.
Power Removed from Voters
Mbaku defines a coup d’état as the ouster of an elected president or head of state, usually by force or the threat of force. Coup participants often justify their actions by blaming governments for economic mismanagement, falling living standards or political instability. But Mbaku argues that military takeovers aren't an effective replacement for institutional reform, structural economic changes and engagement with civil society.
After a coup, military leaders typically rule by decree, bypassing elected legislatures and independent courts. They may suspend or discard constitutions and bills of rights, ban peaceful protests, censor media and jail critics without trial. Mbaku writes that when leaders answer neither to the constitution nor the public, human rights are routinely violated.
The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance says coup leaders shouldn't participate in elections meant to restore democratic order or hold positions of responsibility in state political institutions. Mbaku said the African Union hasn't ensured enforcement of that provision. He also called on states to ban coups, criminalise unconstitutional changes of government and create ways to prosecute perpetrators.
Military Elites and Social Divisions
Coups can intensify intergroup conflict where ethnic and religious divisions shape political mobilisation, patronage and coalition building. Mbaku wrote that ruling elites use ethnic identity to assemble voting blocs and secure power. Military leaders, meanwhile, may fill senior military and security posts with officers from their own ethnic group, a practice known as ethnic stacking. He cited Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria as countries where it has occurred.
Concentrating power in a military faction can spark security crises. Marginalised minorities may resort to violence to defend their resources and political representation, while coups can break apart power-sharing arrangements and democratic frameworks that gave groups a voice in governance.
Economic Costs and Examples
Unpredictable laws and weakened courts can discourage investment and entrepreneurship, Mbaku wrote. Investors need assurance that tax rules, environmental standards and laws governing operations won't change overnight. Reliable, accessible courts and predictable legal frameworks also let businesses enforce long-term trade contracts.
A 2026 International Monetary Fund report estimates that coups “can reduce GDP growth by around 2.3 percentage points in the same year.” It says coups in Africa reduce investment by 14.3%, and their economic effects can last into subsequent years.
Mbaku cited Egypt, where Abdel Fattah el-Sisi overthrew the democratically elected president Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and became president a year later. In Gabon, Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema led the 2023 coup, won the April 2025 presidential election and took office as president.
Afrobarometer surveys found strong opposition to coups among respondents in Zambia (90%), Uganda (87%), Eswatini (85%) and Seychelles (85%). Mbaku said countries that avoided coups have generally built strong constitutions, credible elections and professional armed forces accountable to civilian authority. South Africa and Namibia placed their armed forces under civilian oversight, while Botswana and Mauritius combined good governance with economic development.