A 2026 International Monetary Fund report estimates that coups in Africa reduce investment by 14.3% and can cut GDP growth by around 2.3 percentage points in the same year. Their costs reach beyond markets. Economist and legal scholar John Mukum Mbaku says coups can intensify intergroup conflict, undermine wealth creation and expose vulnerable groups to human rights abuses.
Who Pays for Instability
In an analysis published by The Conversation Africa and distributed by AllAfrica, Mbaku says investors need assurance that tax rules, environmental standards and laws governing operations won’t change overnight. Reliable courts and predictable legal frameworks also help settle disputes and enforce long-term trade contracts. Coups can destabilise these systems and discourage investment and entrepreneurship, he writes. The IMF report says the economic effects can persist in subsequent years.
Entrepreneurship and wealth creation are needed to confront poverty and inequality, according to Mbaku. He argues that military regimes are usually unable or unwilling to deliver the regulatory reforms, legal stability and institutional stability needed to fight poverty and improve living standards. Coup participants often justify taking power by accusing governments of mismanaging the economy, lowering living standards or allowing political instability. But Mbaku says coups aren’t necessarily an effective response to those problems.
His studies of military and constitutional takeovers in Egypt, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, The Gambia and Sudan identified four consequences: worsening intergroup conflict, damage to entrepreneurship and wealth creation, greater risk of abuse against vulnerable groups, and weakened democracy and the rule of law.
Power in Military Hands
In many African countries, ethnicity shapes political mobilisation, patronage and coalition building. Ruling elites use ethnic identity to build voting blocs and secure power, Mbaku writes. Military elites may fill senior military and security posts with officers from their own ethnic group. This practice, known as ethnic stacking, has occurred in Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria, he says.
Concentrating power within a military faction after a coup can trigger security crises. Marginalised minorities may resort to violence to protect themselves, their resources and political representation. Coups can also dismantle power-sharing arrangements or democratic frameworks that had enabled peaceful coexistence and given people a voice in governance.
A coup can put executive, legislative and judicial powers in military hands, Mbaku writes, depriving people of the right to choose leaders through elections. Military regimes typically rule by decree, not through an elected legislature or independent judiciary. Coup leaders often suspend or discard constitutions and bills of rights. They’re also known for arbitrary detentions and torture. Such regimes typically ban peaceful protests, censor media and jail critics without trial.
Reforms and Their Limits
Mbaku calls for regularly scheduled elections, armed forces accountable to elected civilian authorities, and military education that includes human rights law and the duty to defend the constitution. He says coup leaders shouldn’t be allowed to participate in elections intended to restore democratic order or hold positions of responsibility in state political institutions. The African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance provides for this, but Mbaku says the African Union hasn’t ensured it happens.
He also calls on states to ban coups, criminalise unconstitutional changes of government and establish mechanisms to prosecute perpetrators. The analysis points to military leaders who later entered electoral office. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi overthrew the democratically elected president Mohamed Morsi in Egypt in 2013 and became president a year later. In Gabon, Gen. Brice Oligui Nguema led the 2023 coup, won the April 2025 presidential election and was installed as president.
The numbers show strong opposition to military coups. Afrobarometer surveys found that 90% of respondents in Zambia, 87% in Uganda, 85% in Eswatini and 85% in Seychelles opposed them. Mbaku says countries that have avoided coups have generally developed strong constitutions and institutions, credible elections and professional armed forces accountable to civilian authority. South Africa and Namibia brought their armed forces under civilian oversight; Botswana and Mauritius combined good governance with economic development.