U.S. software-development job postings have climbed nearly 15% since February 2025, when Anthropic launched Claude Code, even as overall postings fell. That challenges a popular forecast: AI coding tools would swiftly wipe out demand for software writers. They haven’t—not yet.
What the Market Is Saying
Eric Kutcher, North America chair at McKinsey, put it plainly in a recent interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “It wasn’t that long ago that we were reading the headline that there will be no more need for software developers,” he said. Companies produce more code, and developers who work with AI remain in high demand. “We’re seeing much more growth in the places we thought we were gonna see the biggest displacement,” Kutcher said.
Those fears didn’t come from nowhere. In 2023, Microsoft’s GitHub said AI was close to writing half of all code on projects where it was available. Some AI experts now claim AI-written code across GitHub has passed the halfway mark, though GitHub hasn’t confirmed that. In October, GitHub reported that one in three pull requests involved an AI agent, up from fewer than one in 10 a year earlier. The company added that if that pace holds, “within the next two years, most of the code pushed to GitHub could be written by an agent. Much of it may never be fully read by a human.”
A Correction, Not Just a Collapse
The earlier slide in developer hiring wasn’t solely an AI story. McKinsey Global Institute research says automation of software tasks was underway, but the rebound followed a steep fall from a 2022 hiring peak, when technology companies pulled back after a pandemic-era hiring surge. Firms overextended, then trimmed. Even after the recovery, software-development postings remain about 27.5% below their pre-pandemic level, Indeed Hiring Lab data show.
The recovery is lopsided. Senior positions accounted for 71% of the increase in software-development postings between May 2025 and May 2026, according to Indeed Hiring Lab. Job titles mentioning AI accounted for 37% of the increase. GitHub leaders have previously said 80% or more of code could eventually be written by AI as developers grow comfortable with the tools. Demand may therefore center on workers who can assess AI-generated code and connect tools to an organization’s wider technology systems.
Sneha Puri, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, said companies still need developers to oversee AI work, refine products and help clients integrate technology into day-to-day operations. She said there’s growing need for workers who help businesses apply AI tools, not just build them.
The Broader Jobs Picture
Economist Steve Rattner’s analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data found that software developers recorded positive employment growth from May 2023 to May 2025. Their growth was in line with all occupations and below the pace for traditionally blue-collar jobs tied to building AI data centers. Researchers at Anthropic found people remain necessary to oversee automation and provide user input, but cautioned that “it is by no means certain that this pattern will persist into the future.”
GitHub also flagged a concern about risk. “As the amount of code grows, we must prevent more exposures and reduce the human effort required by those that remain, or else the volume of vulnerabilities introduced will become untenable,” it wrote.
The Young-Worker Problem
People just starting out face worse news. Stanford University’s 2026 AI index found employment in AI-exposed fields among workers ages 22 to 25 had fallen 16% since the rise of generative AI. Employment among early-career software developers fell 20%, even as older developer roles expanded.
Puri offered students practical advice. “Being able to use AI in your work and improve your efficiency is a great place to start,” she said. “But communication, interpersonal skills and leadership are also really important.” She also warned employers about the long game: “Today’s entry-level talent becomes tomorrow’s senior experts. If employers don’t build those pipelines now, they’re not going to have senior talent they need 10 years down the line.”
An August report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projected software-developer employment would grow 10% from 2025 to 2035, rising from about 1.72 million to 1.89 million jobs and adding roughly 174,700 positions.
Why This Matters:
The data suggest the labor market is adjusting to AI on its own, without a government rescue plan. Hiring is rebounding where employers see value, and skills are shifting toward oversight and integration. Functioning markets typically absorb new technology this way. But the 20% drop in early-career developer employment is a real cost, and it falls on workers least able to absorb it. Employers, not regulators, hold the key to that problem. If firms stop building entry-level pipelines, they’ll face a senior-talent shortage a decade from now. The incentive to fix it is theirs. Policymakers weighing heavy-handed AI labor rules should note that feared mass displacement hasn’t arrived, and that the strongest signal in the data is demand for adaptable, skilled workers.