The Coalition wants to cut temporary migration by 650,000 places over four years and add 100,000 higher-paid skilled migrants to offset lost tax revenue. Migration numbers and workers’ pay sit at the centre of its budget plan.
Business, aged care, education and construction sectors have raised economic concerns. Aged care relies heavily on temporary visas, and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said the Coalition’s proposal would allow some workers to stay on existing visas longer under a transitional arrangement. The Coalition says details of the plan shaping those workers’ status will come closer to the election.
Who Sets the Numbers
Taylor said the migration plan would be “budget neutral,” but the Parliamentary Budget Office hasn’t officially costed it. He said legislative “constraints” limited what the office could model. “It cannot model directly on Labor’s policies so we had to give it assumptions to work with,” Taylor said. “That is a constraint, but as we approach the election, we won’t have that constraint.”
The Coalition proposes cutting temporary migration while adding skilled migrants who would earn more and pay more tax. Taylor argued that lowering the numbers while raising standards could preserve budget neutrality and strengthen the economy, as incoming migrants’ average income and productivity would rise. He said, “What’s happening under Labor is they are driving economic growth through population growth alone.”
Net overseas migration fell to 292,100 people in the year to March. Labor is pursuing targets of 245,000 for this financial year and 225,000 the following year. Those figures lay out competing approaches from the major parties. Sectors that depend on workers have raised concerns about the Coalition’s proposed changes.
The Election Stage
Former Liberal treasurer Josh Frydenberg released excerpts of his upcoming memoir, “A Grateful Son,” in The Australian on Saturday. They included details of his election defeat four years ago. Frydenberg, the former Kooyong MP and a leadership frontrunner, fuelled speculation that he may contest a seat at the next election as he set out a vision for Australia.
Frydenberg urged the Liberal Party to “reclaim” the centre of politics and said Canberra lacked political courage. His proposals included changes to energy and AI policy, along with directing a portion of state GST revenue according to how many homes were built.
On Insiders on Sunday, Taylor was asked whether he would welcome or fear Frydenberg’s return. He said he needed “every good leader” before the next federal election. People could play different roles, he said, “all the way through to being a candidate,” adding, “we’ve all got to mobilise.” Taylor said he welcomed Frydenberg playing whatever role he could. But the Coalition won’t adopt Frydenberg’s GST proposal.
Who Pays for the Plan
Taylor said, “We will not be raising the GST in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis. That we won’t do.” He said the Coalition wouldn’t raise taxes and described himself as a fiscal conservative who believed in lower taxes. He also promised a “tax-back guarantee” and lower income taxes without raising the GST.
Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek called Taylor’s interview a “car crash” and questioned why he couldn’t provide full economic modelling. “It’s disappointing that a once major party of government can’t answer basic questions about the economic impact of their policies,” she said. She added that businesses, farmers and unions had warned the policy would “smash the economy,” and said the Coalition should return to the drawing board.
Immigration Minister Tony Burke warned that bridging visa cuts on the proposed scale would require billions of dollars in infrastructure and workforce investment. “They need to let us know how many beds, how many compliance officers, and where the new detention centres are going,” he told News24. “The numbers they are talking about, we are talking billions and billions of dollars I suspect.”