The Coalition proposes cutting temporary migration by 650,000 places over four years while adding 100,000 higher-paid skilled migrants who would pay more tax. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor says the plan would be budget neutral, but the Parliamentary Budget Office hasn’t officially costed it.
Who Pays for the Migration Plan
Business, aged care, education and construction sectors have raised economic concerns about the proposal. Aged care relies heavily on temporary visas. Taylor said the sector would receive a transitional arrangement, allowing workers to stay on existing visas for longer.
The Coalition hasn’t released further details of the plan, saying it will do so closer to the election. Taylor said legislative constraints meant the Parliamentary Budget Office couldn’t model the proposal directly against Labor’s policies. The Coalition gave the office assumptions to use, he said, and added that the constraint wouldn’t apply as the election approaches.
Taylor argued that fewer migrants with higher incomes could preserve revenue. “If you cut numbers and raise standards, you can maintain budget neutrality. And you can strengthen the economy because the average income, the average productivity of the person coming into this country rises,” he said.
He contrasted the Coalition proposal with Labor’s approach. “What’s happening under Labor is they are driving economic growth through population growth alone.” Net overseas migration fell to 292,100 people in the year to March. Labor is pursuing targets of 245,000 for this financial year and 225,000 the following year.
Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek challenged the Coalition’s lack of economic modelling. “It’s disappointing that a once major party of government can’t answer basic questions about the economic impact of their policies,” she said. She cited opposition from “big business and small businesses and farmers and unions,” and said the policy could “smash the economy.”
Tax Promises and Public Costs
Taylor ruled out raising the goods and services tax, rejecting a proposal from former treasurer Josh Frydenberg to direct a portion of state GST revenue according to how many homes were built. “We will not be raising the GST in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis. That we won’t do,” Taylor said. “We’ll put Australia and Australians first, but we won’t be raising taxes.”
He called himself “a fiscal conservative” and said the Coalition would offer a “tax-back guarantee,” with lower income taxes and no GST increase. Frydenberg’s proposal would link a share of state GST revenue to home building; Taylor said the Coalition wouldn’t adopt it.
Immigration Minister Tony Burke said the Coalition’s proposed cuts to bridging visas would require billions of dollars in infrastructure and workforce investment. “They need to let us know how many beds, how many compliance officers, and where the new detention centres are going,” he told News24. “The numbers they are talking about, we are talking billions and billions of dollars I suspect.”
Leadership and the Election
Taylor said he’d welcome Frydenberg’s return and wanted “every good leader” heading into the next federal election. Frydenberg, a former Kooyong MP described as a leadership frontrunner, released excerpts from his upcoming memoir, “A Grateful Son,” in The Australian on Saturday. The excerpts discussed his election defeat four years ago.
Frydenberg urged the Liberal Party to “reclaim” the centre of politics and said Canberra lacked political courage. He set out proposals on energy and AI, alongside the GST revenue idea. His excerpts fuelled speculation he may contest a seat at the next election.
Taylor said Frydenberg could play a role “whether it’s just liking Facebook and Instagram posts all the way through to being a candidate.” He added: “But we’ve all got to mobilise, and I welcome Josh playing whatever role he’s able to play.”