The Coalition says it would cut temporary migration by 650,000 places over four years and add 100,000 skilled migrants under its newly released policy, which Opposition Leader Angus Taylor defended on Sunday. The plan would change the scale and composition of migration, but Taylor said the Parliamentary Budget Office hadn’t officially costed it. The Coalition says more details will come closer to the election.
The migration plan and its costs
Taylor described the proposal as “budget neutral,” arguing that higher-paid skilled migrants would pay more tax and offset lost revenue. He said the policy would raise the average income and productivity of people coming to Australia. “If you cut numbers and raise standards, you can maintain budget neutrality,” he said. “And you can strengthen the economy because the average income, the average productivity of the person coming into this country rises.”
The Parliamentary Budget Office didn’t officially cost the policy. Taylor blamed legislative “constraints,” saying the office couldn’t model directly on Labor’s policies and had instead worked from assumptions supplied by the Coalition. “That is a constraint, but as we approach the election, we won't have that constraint,” he said. The Coalition hasn’t released the further details it says will come closer to the election.
Business, aged care, education and construction sectors have raised economic concerns about the migration plan. Taylor said aged care, which relies heavily on temporary visas, would get a transitional arrangement allowing workers to remain on existing visas for longer. The article doesn’t give the number of workers covered by that arrangement.
Competing claims over migration
Net overseas migration fell to 292,100 people in the year to March. Labor is pursuing targets of 245,000 for this financial year and 225,000 the following year. Taylor contrasted the Coalition proposal with Labor’s approach: “What's happening under Labor is they are driving economic growth through population growth alone.”
Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek called Taylor’s interview a “car crash” and questioned why he couldn’t provide full economic modelling. “It's disappointing that a once major party of government can't answer basic questions about the economic impact of their policies,” she said. Plibersek said business groups, farmers and unions had warned the policy would “smash the economy,” and urged the Coalition to return to the drawing board.
Immigration Minister Tony Burke said bridging visa cuts on the proposed scale would require billions of dollars in infrastructure and workforce investment. “They need to let us know how many beds, how many compliance officers, and where the new detention centres are going,” he told News24. He added: “The numbers they are talking about, we are talking billions and billions of dollars I suspect.”
Frydenberg and the tax question
Taylor also said he’d welcome former Liberal treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s return to politics. Frydenberg released excerpts of his upcoming memoir, “A Grateful Son,” in The Australian on Saturday. He described his election defeat four years ago and urged the Liberal Party to “reclaim” the centre of politics, saying Canberra lacked political courage. His proposals included changes on energy and AI, and directing a portion of state GST revenue according to how many homes were built.
Taylor said the Coalition wouldn’t adopt Frydenberg’s GST proposal. “We will not be raising the GST in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis. That we won't do,” he said. Taylor also said the party would offer lower income taxes without raising the GST. The article describes a domestic migration proposal and a dispute over tax and economic modelling; it identifies no treaty, international framework or transfer of national authority.