Soaring fuel costs, a direct consequence of the Iran war, are driving panicked consumers in hard-hit Asia toward rooftop solar power, creating a significant windfall for China, the world’s largest provider of solar technology. In the Philippines, currently in a national energy emergency, a survey of 20 local solar companies found a 70% increase in weekly installations and a six-fold jump in customer inquiries since the conflict began. Brenda Valerio of the nonprofit New Energy Nexus, which conducted the survey, stated, “This crisis is a driving force for solar,” and, “People want solar and people want solar now.” This surge in demand directly translates into capital accumulation for the dominant players in the solar industry.
Who Profits from Imperialism
China is poised to profit substantially from the demand generated by the war. Chinese clean technology equipment exports hit a record high in March, according to energy think tank Ember, demonstrating the scale of this economic benefit. Worldwide interest in solar is increasing, with Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Climate Hub, noting, “China really is, by far, leading this race,” and describing the renewable industry as “a one-man show.” This underscores China's established dominance in the sector, now further solidified by global instability.
The Iran war, initiated by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28, directly led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This act of imperial aggression has disrupted global energy markets, causing oil and gas spikes that create the conditions for increased solar demand. Li Shuo confirmed that Chinese companies had an oversupply of solar panels and other equipment before the war, positioning them perfectly to capitalize on the current demand. He stated, “When it comes to the clean tech sector, China at this point in time is already so far ahead,” and, “The current situation in Iran will help China cement its dominance.” This demonstrates how geopolitical conflict can be leveraged for economic gain by specific segments of capital.
Specific corporations are direct beneficiaries. EcoSolutions installers in Manila set up an 18-kilowatt rooftop solar system, which included 28 panels from major Chinese manufacturer LONGi and four batteries from Suzhou-based battery group Dyness. Richmond Reyes, EcoSolutions president, acknowledged, “The war has helped the solar industry really get its footing.” Ember also reported that China exported 68 gigawatts worth of clean technology products in March, equivalent to Spain’s entire solar capacity and double its February output, indicating massive surplus extraction from the global market.
The Burden on the Dispossessed
While capital accumulates, the working class and economically dispossessed bear the direct costs. The Philippines, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern crude oil and liquefied natural gas, is among the most impacted Southeast Asian nations by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil and gas spikes during the first 60 days of the Iran war cost Filipino consumers, businesses, and public institutions more than $600 million, according to climate nonprofit 350.org. This represents a direct transfer of wealth from the working population to energy corporations.
The impact on daily life for workers is severe. Local airlines are weighing fuel rationing, and public transport workers are receiving cash handouts to cope with rising costs. Gas and diesel prices have shot up, directly affecting the cost of living and transportation. To conserve energy, government offices have shifted to a four-day work week and been instructed to keep air conditioning no lower than 24 degrees Celsius, or 75 degrees Fahrenheit. Jaime Quemado, a Manila resident who recently bought a rooftop solar system, described his experience: “When we got our energy bill after the Iran war broke out, we were very shocked. It was wow. It was a significant increase.” He also cited growing concerns about potential power outages, which pushed him to seek alternatives like “solar, which is very abundant here in the Philippines.” Customer interest in rooftop solar jumped from around 115 inquiries in February, before the start of the Iran war, to more than 450 by mid-April, according to the New Energy Nexus survey. This reflects the desperation of individuals facing systemic economic pressures.
Capital's Global Reach and State Complicity
Solar is being embraced across Southeast Asia, with Indonesia setting an ambitious target to install 100 gigawatts of rooftop solar by 2034 and Vietnam aiming for rooftop solar on at least 10% of public offices and homes nationwide by 2030. Thailand is considering new policies to increase the amount of surplus energy the national grid can buy from rooftop solar users. Yu Sun Chin of Zero Carbon Analytics noted that the energy crisis is incentivizing these decisions, stating, “It totally makes sense for policymakers to take another look at rooftop solar and see ways that they can save costs.” These state actions, framed as solutions, primarily serve to manage the contradictions of the existing system and facilitate the shift of capital, rather than addressing the root causes of energy insecurity or imperial conflict.
Online marketplaces and utility companies in the U.S. and across Europe have also recorded jumps in solar sales and inquiries since the Iran war began, illustrating the global reach of this capital shift. Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University, presented rooftop solar as “one of the easiest things people can do” to cut monthly electricity bills, framing a systemic crisis as an individual consumer choice. Ember found the Iran war is accelerating the world’s energy transition, with China’s exports to Africa hitting 10 gigawatts, a 176% jump from February, and exports to other Asian nations doubling to 39 gigawatts. Ramnath Iyer of the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis stated that the speed of the transition depends on whether world leaders “decide to go ahead with electrification and move away from fossil fuels,” highlighting the role of state policy in directing capital flows.