Americas Quarterly’s October 1 podcast weighs a possible economic upswing in Latin America against uncertainty in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, the region’s three largest economies. Its cited conditions include record commodity prices, a weak U.S. dollar, Latin America’s position as a seller to both the United States and China, and a wave of business-friendly governments. Could those forces bring the region its strongest outlook since the commodities boom of the 2000s? The episode leaves that question open.
Ernesto Revilla, Citi’s chief economist for Latin America and a member of AQ’s editorial board, joins the discussion. Brian Winter, editor in chief of Americas Quarterly, hosts. The episode considers what a new takeoff could mean for growth, markets and citizens, but its published description gives no figures on wages, employment, household income or the distribution of gains.
Markets and the boom forecast
Record commodity prices and a weak U.S. dollar form the episode’s favorable indicators. The description cites them as part of the case for asking whether the region’s economic outlook has strengthened. It doesn’t name particular commodities, say how much prices have risen, or identify the companies and governments that have gained from those prices.
Latin America’s role in the global trade war also shapes the forecast. The region sells to both the United States and China. The podcast asks what that position could mean for markets and growth, but offers no trade figures and doesn’t explain how the effects might differ among countries or workers.
A wave of business-friendly governments is another condition under review. The description doesn’t name those governments or spell out their policies. It treats the political shift as part of the economic outlook, while leaving open what that approach means for citizens and how any gains would be shared.
Uncertainty in the largest economies
Brazil, Mexico and Argentina still cloud the forecast. The episode reviews the region’s most relevant economies and asks what might prevent a favorable moment from lasting. The published account gives no growth projections for the three countries and reports no specific policy, employment or income outcomes that would answer those questions.
The podcast also directs readers to Alessandra Ribeiro’s “Brazil’s Economy Is Slowing. Will It Ruin Lula’s Chances?” and Marcos Troyjo’s “From China Shock to China Choke.” The linked titles address Brazil’s economy and China, topics that overlap with the podcast’s discussion of regional prospects and the trade war.
Other linked articles include Luis Miguel Castilla’s “Fujimori’s First Month: Economic Momentum, Questions Still to Come” and Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Rafael Rofman’s “Latin America’s Fading Demographic Tailwind.” Together, the page sets the upbeat outlook beside questions about economic momentum and demographic change.
Readers can find the podcast on Apple, Spotify and other platforms. Americas Quarterly says opinions expressed in the episode don’t necessarily reflect those of the publication or its publishers. The page also links to earlier podcasts on Brazil’s election, featuring political analyst Thomas Traumann, and a survey of Latin Americans’ views on the United States, democracy, economies, Trump, China and emigration, featuring Noam Lupu of Vanderbilt’s Center for Global Democracy.