U.S. Trade Terms Tighten Grip on Argentina and Mexico

The United States is using trade rules, tariffs and investment agreements to set terms for Argentina and Mexico, while access to their markets and resources remains a central prize. Argentina’s agreement requires lower duties and licensing barriers for U.S. goods and gives U.S. investors access to critical minerals and energy on terms no less favorable than those offered to local investors. Mexico faces U.S. tariffs even as its goods trade with the United States reached US$871.6 billion in 2025.

Who Sets the Terms

Signed on February 5, 2026, the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment requires Argentina to establish duty-free quotas for 80,000 metric tons of U.S. beef, 10,000 vehicles and 1,000 tons of cheese in 2026. Argentina also agreed to open its market to U.S. poultry within a year after the agreement takes effect and not to discriminate against U.S. companies through digital-services taxes. The agreement hasn’t taken effect: neither government had issued an official notice by October 27 confirming completion of its legal steps. Either side can end it with six months’ notice.

The deal also connects Argentina’s minerals and energy to U.S. investment. On September 23, Quirno and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau launched the Andes-Atlantic Corridor, which aims to connect Argentine mines and oil fields to Atlantic ports through railways, waterways, ports, pipelines and power lines. The United States said it would promote financing from the DFC and EXIM Bank. Argentina named Vaca Muerta as a priority for the project.

These investment terms arrive alongside tariff pressure. Since July 24, Washington has applied a 10% Section 301 tariff on Argentine products, with listed exemptions; most other covered economies face 12.5%. A protocol offering most-favored-nation rates for listed Argentine goods remains subject to other U.S. trade actions and starts only when the agreement takes effect. The temporary 10% import surcharge ran from February 24 through July 24, with exemptions including beef, energy, pharmaceuticals and certain critical minerals.

The Cost of the Apparatus

U.S. goods and services trade with Argentina totaled US$29.9 billion in 2025. The United States recorded a US$1.7 billion surplus in goods and a US$6.1 billion surplus in services. From January through August 2026, the U.S. goods surplus narrowed to US$266.6 million, and U.S. imports exceeded exports in July and August. Argentina’s INDEC statistics office reported consumer prices 33.5% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier. The International Monetary Fund projected 2.1% growth in 2026, while the peso traded near 1,540 per U.S. dollar on October 27.

Mexico’s figures show a different imbalance. U.S. exports to Mexico totaled US$337.3 billion in 2025, while imports reached US$534.3 billion, leaving a U.S. goods deficit of US$197.0 billion. From January through August 2026, imports rose 18% and exports 17% compared with the same period in 2025; the deficit grew to US$155.9 billion. Those figures cover goods, not services.

A 10% Section 301 tariff has applied to Mexican products entered since July 24, except goods entered duty-free under the USMCA and other listed exemptions. Steel, aluminum, most copper and some derivative goods have faced a 50% Section 232 tariff since April 6. Cars and many parts face a separate 25% Section 232 tariff, with qualifying USMCA vehicles paying it only on non-U.S. content. Importers who overstate U.S. content face retroactive 25% duties on the full value of the model line.

Reviews, Votes and Leverage

The USMCA remains in force, but Washington declined to extend it to a new 16-year term at the joint review on July 1, 2026. The three countries must hold annual meetings until all confirm an extension; without one, the agreement expires July 1, 2036. The U.S. Trade Representative opened public consultation for the 2027 review, with written comments due by January 12, 2027.

The agreement’s labor process has placed specific workplaces under cross-border review. On October 13, the United States sought a review of Carolina Performance Fabrics, a car-textile plant in Guanajuato, and customs settlement for its goods was suspended while Mexico decided. At Minera Peñasquito in Zacatecas, both governments announced a remediation plan due October 28, offering two workers reinstatement with back pay or severance.

In Argentina, an undated draft resolution by deputies asks Foreign Minister Quirno to explain the trade agreement; its authors say Congress hasn’t debated it. Javier Milei has been president since December 2023, and the next presidential election is due in October 2027. The available account describes the agreement’s market-access terms and investment provisions, but offers no account of grassroots or mutual-aid responses to them.

Mexico’s foreign minister, Roberto Velasco Álvarez, told the United Nations on September 25, 2026, that international cooperation strengthened Mexico’s security strategy and that it didn’t rely on a logic of war or renouncing human rights. Meanwhile, a 1% U.S. excise tax applies to taxable remittance transfers made after December 31, 2025. The World Bank reported US$65.1 billion in remittances to Mexico in 2025, equal to 3.6% of GDP. The rules distinguish transfers funded with cash, money orders or cashier’s checks from bank-account transfers. The fine print governs trade, investment and money sent home. The people living with those terms aren’t the ones writing them.