Argentina’s $5.7 billion trade deficit with Brazil sits behind a political contest that could reshape influence between Buenos Aires and Washington. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil’s election, Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, could gain an ideological ally next door—but lose some of his special standing with Donald Trump, according to an analysis published by iProfesional on Saturday 3 October.
Who Commands Washington’s Attention
“If Bolsonaro wins, the United States will give more room to Bolsonaro than to Milei,” a source in Argentina’s foreign ministry told political writer Mariano Obarrio. The source cited Brazil’s greater size and economy: “Brazil weighs more as a country and because of the size of its economy.”
Brazil has about 213 million people, more than four times Argentina’s population, and the largest economy in Latin America. The analysis said a Bolsonaro victory could give Milei a like-minded partner, while putting him alongside a country with far greater population and economic weight as both vie for Washington’s attention.
Benjamin Gedan of the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank and former White House adviser on South America, described Flávio Bolsonaro as “as MAGA as Milei.” Gedan said Bolsonaro was “equally committed” to becoming Washington’s main South American ally. Flávio has promised Brazil would join the Shield of the Americas, a U.S.-led security initiative Argentina already belongs to.
Trump hadn’t endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, Time reported, though he called Brazil’s vote very important. The concern in Buenos Aires reflects the judgment of unnamed officials, not a signal from Washington.
Trade and Diplomatic Costs
Two-way trade between Argentina and Brazil reached US$31.2 billion in 2025, a 13-year high, according to the Rosario Board of Trade. Argentina exported US$12.8 billion in goods to Brazil and imported US$18.4 billion, leaving a deficit of about US$5.7 billion.
Cars, car parts, wheat and fuel account for much of the trade, Forbes Argentina reported. The figures show the economic ties both governments would have to manage alongside their political dispute. A Bolsonaro victory could end the diplomatic freeze; a Lula victory would leave Milei facing a neighbor he has repeatedly insulted.
In August, Brazil downgraded its diplomatic representation in Buenos Aires, and neither ambassador had returned to post, according to La Nación. Officials at the Casa Rosada, Argentina’s presidential palace, told iProfesional: “They would love Bolsonaro to win, but ‘worry’ isn’t the word.”
Campaign Alignment and the Vote
Milei joined Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign launch in São Paulo on 25 July. La Nación reported that he called Flávio a friend and Lula a “thief.” The report said Milei was wary of intervening directly in the campaign and hadn’t ruled out traveling to Brazil if Flávio won the first round.
Flávio had also courted Argentina, promising in June that Brazil would “return to being a brother to Argentina.” His economic coordinator, Daniella Marques, said his plan draws on Milei’s approach. The candidates’ political alignment comes alongside trade figures showing Argentina imports more from Brazil than it exports.
Flávio, a senator and eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, was due to face President Lula on Sunday. Brazil’s polls were scheduled to close at 17:00 Brasília time, also 17:00 in Buenos Aires and 20:00 UTC. If no candidate won more than half of the valid votes, the top two would meet again on 25 October.