Argentina’s central bank bought US$369 million in the five sessions to Friday, 2 October 2026, its largest weekly total since July. Households kept buying dollars, too. By one analyst’s count, they’ve bought twice as many as the state.
The Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) bought US$70 million on Tuesday, US$160 million on Wednesday and US$93 million on Thursday. Friday’s addition came to US$35 million. Gross reserves climbed US$364 million that day, reaching US$48.653 billion, Ámbito reported.
A Target Met, a Bigger One in Doubt
The BCRA’s 2026 purchases have reached US$14.696 billion, topping the US$10 billion target agreed with the International Monetary Fund for the year. The pace, though, has cooled. September marked the weakest month since the buying program began early this year. Daily purchases averaged US$22 million, down from US$38 million in August and US$137 million in May.
Economy Minister Luis Caputo set a higher bar, projecting US$19.4 billion in purchases for 2026. Meeting that goal would require about US$5 billion more in three months, a pace iProfesional said the market viewed as demanding.
Traders disagreed about where the week’s dollars came from. Some pointed to San Juan province, which had raised US$600 million in New York days earlier. Gabriel Caamaño of the consultancy Outlier estimated that traders agreed directly on much of Wednesday’s purchase as a block outside the market. Companies and provinces placed almost US$3.2 billion of dollar debt in September, and analysts expect more such deals.
Who’s Buying the Dollars
Households bought US$2.853 billion in banks in August, according to the central bank’s exchange balance, cited by iProfesional and Infobae. After sales, net purchases totaled US$2.463 billion, with about 1.7 million buyers. About US$1.1 billion remained on deposit in local banks. Three banks told iProfesional that net September sales probably exceeded US$2.7 billion, a preliminary estimate.
The longer record looks starker. From April 2025 to August 2026, individuals bought US$47.29 billion gross and US$40.34 billion net, Infobae reported, citing central bank data. Many dollars ended up outside the financial system. They add to the US$268.8 billion in "mattress dollars" estimated in June.
Analyst Salvador Di Stéfano put individual purchases since December 2023 at US$72.9 billion, against US$36.5 billion bought by the central bank. His breakdown put individual purchases since April 2025 at US$63.8 billion, above the official gross figure of US$47.29 billion. His column didn’t specify which data series it used. Even the lower official figure exceeded the central bank purchases he cited for the entire period.
Benign Trend or Open Question?
Di Stéfano called the trend benign. He cited a US$26.8 billion rise in private dollar deposits and US$21.7 billion more in dollar loans. He called a tax on dollar purchases, floated that week by economist Santángelo, "a delusion."
Others took a more cautious view. Former central bank chief Martín Redrado told iProfesional the open question was whether dollars would cover both debt payments and rising dollarization. Country risk hit a 2026 high of 655 points on Friday, El Economista reported.
Much remains unconfirmed. The central bank hasn’t published its September exchange balance, leaving the US$2.7 billion estimate for savers unverified. No one has confirmed the source of Wednesday’s large purchase, either. It’s unclear whether October buying will maintain the pace of the first two sessions, and analysts quoted by iProfesional were divided over whether the week’s purchases were a one-off.
Why This Matters: Reserves are a public resource, and the state competes with millions of private savers for the same dollars. Around 1.7 million people bought dollars in a single month, and a large share of the dollars held outside banks sits beyond the financial system’s reach. That limits how far public institutions can see, or steer, what’s happening. Meanwhile, the government’s reserve-building depends partly on provincial and corporate borrowing in dollars, while country risk sits at a 2026 high. Redrado’s question about covering both debt payments and dollarization is also a question about how the burden of that debt gets shared. The missing September data matters, too: without published figures, the public can’t fully check claims about who’s buying and why.