Argentina’s central bank bought US$369 million in the five sessions to Friday, 2 October 2026, its biggest weekly total since July, Ámbito reported. Argentine savers bought dollars too. By one analyst’s count, they bought twice as many as the state.
The Week’s Purchases
The Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) bought US$70 million on Tuesday, US$160 million on Wednesday and US$93 million on Thursday. Friday brought another US$35 million. Gross reserves climbed US$364 million that day, to US$48.653 billion.
The BCRA’s purchases in 2026 had reached US$14.696 billion, topping the US$10 billion target for the year agreed with the International Monetary Fund. But the pace varied sharply over the year. September marked the weakest month since the buying program began early that year. Daily purchases averaged US$22 million, against US$38 million in August and US$137 million in May.
Where did the dollars come from? Traders had different answers. Some pointed to San Juan province, which had raised US$600 million in New York days earlier. Gabriel Caamaño of the consultancy Outlier estimated that much of Wednesday’s purchase came from a block deal agreed directly outside the market. Companies and provinces placed almost US$3.2 billion of dollar debt in September, and analysts expected more such deals.
Savers Outrun the State
Economy Minister Luis Caputo projected US$19.4 billion in purchases for 2026. Hitting that figure would mean buying about US$5 billion more in three months, a pace iProfesional said the market considered demanding.
Households were buying for themselves, too. In August, they bought US$2.853 billion in banks, according to the central bank’s exchange balance cited by iProfesional and Infobae. After sales, net purchases came to US$2.463 billion, with about 1.7 million buyers. About US$1.1 billion remained on deposit in local banks. Three banks told iProfesional that net September sales probably topped US$2.7 billion, a preliminary estimate.
From April 2025 to August 2026, individuals bought US$47.29 billion gross and US$40.34 billion net, Infobae reported, citing central bank data. Many of those dollars left the financial system, adding to the US$268.8 billion in "mattress dollars" estimated in June.
Writing in iProfesional on 3 October, analyst Salvador Di Stéfano put individual purchases since December 2023 at US$72.9 billion, against US$36.5 billion bought by the central bank. His breakdown put individual purchases since April 2025 at US$63.8 billion, above the official gross figure of US$47.29 billion. His column didn’t identify the data series it used. Even the lower official figure exceeded the central bank purchases he cited for the entire period.
Di Stéfano called the trend benign. He pointed to a US$26.8 billion rise in private dollar deposits and US$21.7 billion more in dollar loans. He also called a tax on dollar purchases, floated that week by economist Santángelo, "a delusion."
Risk and Open Questions
Former central bank chief Martín Redrado told iProfesional the open question was whether dollars could cover both debt payments and rising dollarization. On Friday, country risk hit a 2026 high of 655 points, El Economista reported.
Key details remain unconfirmed. The central bank hadn’t published its September exchange balance, leaving the US$2.7 billion estimate for savers unverified. No one had confirmed the source of Wednesday’s large purchase, either. It wasn’t clear whether October buying would maintain the pace of the first two sessions, and analysts quoted by iProfesional disagreed over whether the week’s purchases were a one-off.
Why This Matters:
The figures show where dollars are going. Households are moving far more money into dollars than the central bank can buy, and much of it sits outside the banking system. Reserves of US$48.653 billion and a US$14.696 billion purchase tally look solid. But country risk at 655 points, September’s slowdown and a US$5 billion gap to Caputo’s target suggest markets remain cautious. From a market-minded view, the signals to watch are voluntary: whether companies and provinces keep raising dollar debt, and whether savers’ deposits keep growing. The debate over taxing dollar purchases shows the alternative on offer. Redrado’s question—whether dollars can cover both debt payments and dollarization—still has no answer.