Industrial production contracted 2.2% in the first half of 2026, while construction fell 4.1% in June. This marked its fourth consecutive monthly decline. These figures point to a deepening crisis for Argentina's working class, whose livelihoods are directly tied to these sectors. Meanwhile, inflation in the city of Buenos Aires accelerated to 2.9% in July, further eroding purchasing power.
The S&P Merval, Argentina's main stock index, fell 0.45% on Friday. This marked its sixth consecutive decline. The index returned to levels last seen two months ago, on 5 June. Country risk simultaneously climbed 3% in twenty-four hours, closing at 451 points. This was its highest reading since June.
In dollar terms, the market has moved away from the 2,000-point barrier. This floor had held for two months, since 22 May. August is already running at a loss approaching 6% for investors. The day saw wide swings. The index reached 3,149,198.9 at its peak before settling near its 3,055,274.6 bottom.
The wholesale peso closed around 1,498.50 per dollar, losing about 1.25 pesos. The official rate at Banco Nación remained unchanged. However, parallel rates, used to move capital offshore, surged. The financial dollar rose about 0.6% to roughly 1,581 pesos. The stock-market dollar gained around 0.4% to about 1,526. This widening gap facilitates capital flight, allowing wealth to escape the national economy.
Capital's Retreat
Argentine shares traded in New York, known as ADRs, fell by as much as 5.6%. Bioceres dropped 4.4%. Corporación América fell 4.0%, and Loma Negra 3.2%. This indicates a significant withdrawal of investment from these companies. This market decoupling occurred despite a strong global session. Wall Street was near record highs after a weak United States jobs report. Such a report would normally have benefited emerging markets.
The State Protects Accumulated Wealth
The central bank announced it would not lower the reserves banks must hold. It also would not intervene over rising loan arrears. Instead, it declared it was counting on a "recovery in credit" to resolve the problem. This policy effectively protects financial institutions from economic downturns. It shifts the burden onto debtors and the broader economy.
The central bank also renewed its currency swap with China this week. The term was extended from three years to five. This move secures external capital. It does not address the internal structural issues driving economic contraction and inflation.
The Merval's technical picture shows six consecutive sessions of losses. The index is roughly 9% below its July record of 3,395,937 points, set just 17 days ago. Regional markets showed mixed results. Mexico's IPC was up 0.82%. Chile's IPSA was down 0.17%, and Brazil's Ibovespa fell 1.73%.
The central bank's monthly survey of analysts projects the average wholesale rate for August at 1,512 pesos. The December figure is forecast at 1,652. If this forecast holds, the wholesale dollar would end the year 14.1% above December 2025. This increase, however, is projected to be below expected inflation over the same period. This means the real value of wages will continue to decline.