Argentina’s revenue agency ARCA reported that the state collected 21.36 trillion pesos in September, a nominal increase of 38.3% from a year earlier. The figure, about US$14.0 billion, combines national taxes, customs and social security contributions in one headline total. The collection apparatus is expanding on paper, but changed tax deadlines and higher export duties—not broad growth in real revenue—account for much of the increase.
ARCA reported the figures on Oct. 1. The Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis, or IARAF, estimated that revenue rose about 3.7% after inflation. That estimate remains provisional: IARAF assumed annual inflation of 33.3%, while Infobae used 33.5% and calculated real growth of 3.6%. INDEC, Argentina’s statistics office, hadn’t yet published the official September inflation rate. The peso-to-dollar conversion uses the central bank wholesale reference rate of 1,523.23 pesos per dollar on Oct. 1.
Deadlines and duties drive the increase
Income tax generated 4.77 trillion pesos, about US$3.1 billion. Its nominal increase was 63.3%, and IARAF estimated a 22.5% real increase. ARCA said the first income-tax advance for 2026 fell due in September, while the individual filing deadline moved to Oct. 13. That delay shifts some receipts into October. The state’s monthly total depends partly on when it orders people to pay.
Export duties brought in 1.12 trillion pesos, about US$736 million, up 99.2% nominally and about 49% after inflation. ARCA cited higher soy, grain and hydrocarbon prices, along with increased fuel and mineral exports. The comparison also reflects exporters bringing sales forward to June and July in 2025 to benefit from a temporary duty cut, Ámbito reported. Infobae recalled that the government briefly suspended export duties by decree in September 2025. Policy switches shape the numbers as much as trade does.
The biggest tax source is shrinking in real terms
Value-added tax, the largest single revenue source, raised 6.92 trillion pesos, about US$4.5 billion. That was a 26.1% nominal increase, but an estimated 5.4% decline after inflation. IARAF estimated that VAT on imports fell 18.4% in real terms, while domestic VAT rose about 1.7%. The state collected more pesos. Those pesos bought less in this category.
Gabriel Caamaño, an economist at consultancy Outlier, said September VAT reflected sales from June through August and didn’t yet show September spending. The timing matters: the monthly collection figure isn’t a direct count of what people bought during the month when the state recorded the money.
A surplus alongside cuts
For January to September, IARAF estimated that total revenue fell 3.0% in real terms, or 1.5% excluding trade taxes. El Intransigente published a calculation showing a 2.6% decline. September’s reported rise therefore sits against a longer stretch in which the state’s real revenue remained lower than a year earlier.
The Economy Ministry reported a primary surplus, before interest, of about 1.1% of GDP for January to August. Consultancy Analytica estimated that committed primary spending fell 10% in real terms in August, the sharpest cut of the year, Clarín reported. The figures describe the official balance sheet: more September revenue by one measure, falling real VAT, and a reported spending cut. ARCA now gathers these receipts. It replaced AFIP in 2024 and collects national taxes, customs duties and social security contributions.