Argentina collected 21.36 trillion pesos in taxes in September, about US$14.0 billion, the tax agency ARCA said on Oct. 1. The total jumped 38.3% from a year earlier. But value-added tax, the country's largest single revenue source, continued to fall after inflation. That makes 11 straight months.
The Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis, or IARAF, estimated that total revenue grew about 3.7% in real terms. Infobae called it the largest real increase since May 2024. Still, changes in tax deadlines and higher export duties drove most of the gain, rather than a broad pickup across the tax base. Revenue for January through September remained down in real terms from a year earlier, estimates showed.
Where the Gain Came From
Income tax did much of the lifting. It raised 4.77 trillion pesos, about US$3.1 billion, up 63.3% nominally and an estimated 22.5% in real terms. ARCA said the first income-tax advance for 2026 fell due in September, compared with August a year earlier. The individual filing deadline moved to Oct. 13, shifting some receipts into October.
Export duties rose even more in percentage terms. They brought in 1.12 trillion pesos, about US$736 million, up 99.2% nominally and roughly 49% after inflation. ARCA pointed to higher soy, grain and hydrocarbon prices, plus increased fuel and mineral exports. Last year's timing also skewed the comparison. Ámbito reported that exporters brought sales forward to June and July in 2025 to capture a temporary duty cut, and Infobae recalled that the government briefly suspended export duties by decree in September 2025.
Social security contributions reached 4.97 trillion pesos, about US$3.3 billion. Clarín reported an estimated real increase of 1.6%.
The Weak Spot: Consumption Tax
VAT raised 6.92 trillion pesos, about US$4.5 billion. It rose 26.1% nominally but fell an estimated 5.4% in real terms. IARAF's Nadin Argañaraz said real VAT had declined for the 11th consecutive month, a streak dating to November 2025.
The split inside VAT matters. VAT on imports fell an estimated 18.4% in real terms, while domestic VAT rose about 1.7%, according to IARAF. Gabriel Caamaño, an economist at the consultancy Outlier, offered a caveat: September VAT reflects sales from June through August, he said, so it doesn't yet show September spending.
A Year Still in the Red
The monthly record is uneven. Clarín reported that revenue rose 1.8% in real terms in May, fell 7.4% in July and was roughly flat in August. For the first nine months, IARAF estimated a real decline of 3.0%, or 1.5% excluding trade taxes. El Intransigente published a calculation showing a 2.6% decline.
The government's fiscal accounts tell a parallel story. The Economy Ministry reported a primary surplus, before interest, of about 1.1% of GDP for January through August. Consultancy Analytica estimated that committed primary spending fell 10% in real terms in August, the sharpest cut of the year, Clarín reported.
The real-growth numbers remain provisional. IARAF assumed annual inflation of 33.3%, while Infobae used 33.5% and put real growth at 3.6%. INDEC, Argentina's statistics office, hadn't yet published the official September inflation rate. That figure will decide whether the real gain is closer to 3.6% or 3.7%. Peso-to-dollar conversions use the central bank's wholesale reference rate of 1,523.23 pesos per dollar on Oct. 1.
ARCA, the Agency for Revenue Collection and Customs Control, replaced the former tax agency AFIP in 2024. It collects national taxes, customs duties and social security contributions.
Why This Matters: A headline gain of 3.7% can hide a fragile revenue base. Calendar shifts and commodity-linked export duties drove much of September's rise, while VAT, which tracks everyday economic activity, kept shrinking in real terms. Public services, pensions and social programs depend on steady collection, and the year-to-date figures still show a real decline. Analytica's estimate of a 10% real cut in committed primary spending in August also points to who may feel the squeeze: spending reductions land on programs and the people who rely on them. Caamaño's warning that September spending isn't yet visible means the next few months will show whether household demand is recovering. Official inflation data from INDEC will also help the public judge these figures.