Argentina’s tax agency, ARCA, collected 21.36 trillion pesos in September, about US$14.0 billion, the agency said on Oct. 1. That marked a 38.3% jump in nominal terms. After inflation, the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis, or IARAF, estimated the gain at roughly 3.7%. Changes in tax deadlines and higher export duties drove most of the increase.
The year-to-date picture looks less flattering. Revenue from January to September was still estimated to have fallen in real terms from a year earlier.
Where the Money Came From
Income tax raised 4.77 trillion pesos, about US$3.1 billion. That’s a 63.3% nominal increase and an estimated 22.5% gain in real terms. ARCA said the first 2026 income-tax advance fell due in September, rather than August as it did a year earlier. The individual filing deadline shifted to Oct. 13, moving some receipts into October.
Export duties brought in 1.12 trillion pesos, about US$736 million, up 99.2% nominally and about 49% after inflation. ARCA cited higher prices for soy, grain and hydrocarbons, along with increased fuel and mineral exports. Last year’s comparison also includes a distortion. Ámbito reported that exporters moved sales forward to June and July in 2025 to benefit from a temporary duty cut. Infobae recalled that the government briefly suspended export duties by decree in September 2025.
Social security contributions reached 4.97 trillion pesos, about US$3.3 billion, for an estimated real increase of 1.6%, Clarín reported.
The Broad-Based Tax Keeps Slipping
Value-added tax is the largest single source of revenue, but it told a different story. It raised 6.92 trillion pesos, about US$4.5 billion. Nominal growth reached 26.1% year on year. After inflation, the tax fell an estimated 5.4%.
IARAF’s Nadin Argañaraz said this marked the 11th consecutive month of real decline since November 2025. VAT on imports dropped an estimated 18.4% in real terms, while domestic VAT rose about 1.7%, IARAF estimated. Gabriel Caamaño, an economist at consultancy Outlier, said September VAT reflected sales from June through August. It didn’t yet capture September spending.
The monthly pattern has been choppy. Clarín reported that revenue rose 1.8% in real terms in May, fell 7.4% in July and stayed roughly flat in August. IARAF estimated a real decline of 3.0% for January to September, or 1.5% when trade taxes are excluded. El Intransigente published a calculation showing a 2.6% decline. Infobae called September the largest real increase since May 2024.
The Spending Side
For January to August, the Economy Ministry reported a primary surplus, before interest, of about 1.1% of GDP. Consultancy Analytica estimated that committed primary spending fell 10% in real terms in August, the sharpest cut of the year, Clarín reported.
The real-growth estimates remain provisional. IARAF assumed annual inflation of 33.3%, while Infobae used 33.5% and estimated real growth at 3.6%. INDEC, Argentina’s statistics office, hadn’t yet published the official September rate. Peso-to-dollar conversions use the central bank’s wholesale reference rate of 1,523.23 pesos per dollar on Oct. 1. ARCA, which replaced the former tax agency AFIP in 2024, collects national taxes, customs duties and social security contributions.
Why This Matters: September’s headline number rests on a calendar shift and export duties, not a rebound in everyday commerce. VAT, the broadest measure of domestic sales and imports, has fallen in real terms for 11 straight months. Year-to-date revenue is still down. That matters for a government holding a primary surplus of about 1.1% of GDP, because spending cuts have helped balance the books, including an August real drop of 10% by Analytica’s estimate. From a fiscal-responsibility view, the question is whether real growth in sales and production can lift revenue, rather than one-off timing effects and duties on exporters. October’s receipts, with the delayed filing deadline, will show how much of September’s revenue simply shifted over from the next month.