Bond Investors Set Argentina’s Risk Price as Stocks Dip

Argentina’s MSCI Merval fell 0.3% to 97,942 points on Tuesday, Oct. 20, as country risk climbed above 700 basis points in the morning and closed at 672. The extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds over U.S. Treasuries hit 710 basis points at 10:15 a.m. before easing to finish three points below Monday’s 675.

The 19-share MSCI Merval replaced the S&P Merval on Oct. 19 and was in its second session. Analyst Balanz called the move a “strong intraday reversal across most assets.” Its report said the cause of the morning country-risk spike wasn’t confirmed.

Bond Risk and the Peso

Argentine shares and bonds fell as country risk topped 700 basis points, then recovered as the measure eased. The market tested and rejected the 700-point level in the morning; a close above it would have marked the first since October 2025. By Tuesday’s close, the reported risk measure had slipped back below that threshold.

The wholesale peso rate, which banks and companies use, rose 0.03% to ARS1,525 per U.S. dollar, its third consecutive rise. The blue-market rate, an informal street rate Argentines use to save, climbed 0.6%, or ARS10, to ARS1,570.

The central bank bought US$103 million in the spot market, about 15.3% of the day’s supply, according to Infobae. International reserves rose US$49 million to US$50.201 billion.

Mixed Returns Across Companies

Argentine depositary receipts on Wall Street ended mixed. Globant gained 3.8%, while Satellogic fell 5.4% and Loma Negra dropped 2.5%. Grupo Financiero Galicia rose 1.05%, Banco Macro advanced 0.70%, and YPF added 0.16%; Pampa Energía lost 2.05%. The report said banks and YPF held up as Pampa Energía, Loma Negra and Satellogic declined.

The market board listed the S&P MERVAL at 3,017,221, unchanged, after a previous level of 3,022,485. It recorded a high of 3,042,365, a low of 2,991,150 and a 12-month gain of 30.51%. USD/ARS stood at 1,493, up 0.10%, with a previous level of 1,491, a high of 1,494, a low of 1,480 and a year-over-year rise of 12.96%.

Four of the 14 listed shares advanced. Utilities led the board; Consumer Disc. lagged. YPF closed at 7,810, up 0.26%; GGAL at 6,980, down 0.78%; PAMPA at 5,115, up 0.69%; TXAR at 747.50, down 2.35%; and ALUAR at 938.00, down 1.21%. TGS fell 0.17% to 8,870, while CEPU rose 1.84% to 2,156.

MIRGOR fell 1.20% to 1,650, COME lost 0.73% to 40.93, and LOMA NEGRA gained 0.08% to 3,130. BYMA dropped 1.70% to 275.00, TELECOM ARG lost 0.70% to 4,233, GLOBANT fell 2.26% to 38.10, and MERCADOLIBRE declined 3.59% to 1,870.

Economic Data and Election Bets

Argentina’s Leading Indicator for September appeared on Tuesday’s calendar, but no published result was available. INDEC planned to publish August economic activity on Wednesday, Oct. 21.

Polymarket put Javier Milei at 47.5%, Axel Kicillof at 32.5% and Sergio Massa at 11.6% to win the next presidential election. Traders had wagered US$1.0 million in that market by 8:36 p.m. ET on Oct. 20, 2026. A separate market placed the chance Milei would leave office before 2027 at 2.5%. The report described these figures as bets, not polls, and identified Kalshi as a US exchange regulated by the CFTC.