Armenia heads into national elections on 7 June confronting a choice that will determine not only its regional alignment but the fate of 100,000 displaced refugees, 19 prisoners of war, and the country's democratic future amid mounting authoritarian pressures and geopolitical manipulation.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government is offering what it calls Real Armenia—a vision centered on opening borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, pivoting toward Europe, and transforming the landlocked nation into a trade bridge between continents. But that vision comes at a steep human cost: renouncing claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, where 100,000 Armenians were forcibly displaced overnight in 2023, and accepting painful compromises that critics say abandon vulnerable communities.
A Peace Built on Displacement
The displaced refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh now live in Yerevan and fear for their heritage. Nineteen prisoners from the 2023 conflict remain captive in Baku, including the region's first minister, Ruben Vardanyan, who claims Pashinyan has abandoned their cause. The prime minister's Civil Contract party has overseen two successive humiliating military disasters at the hands of Azerbaijan in 2020 and 2023, yet early polls show the party may be on course to win.
Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said the government's aim was to turn Armenia's geography into a strategic asset. "The challenge after decades is how to become a bridge rather than an obstacle," he said. "So this is what we are now trying to do in Armenia. Somehow we have come to understand that we can connect Europe with Central Asia, with the far east, with India, China, and this, in turn, can not only be a way to save our existence, our sovereignty, but also guarantee our further peaceful prosperity."
The so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or Tripp, linking Europe and Asia and built across Armenian territory as part of a peace deal with Baku, would be one part of the new connectivity plan. Pashinyan has said the opening of borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan could transform Armenia and the South Caucasus, arguing that once peace is secured it would be as if Armenia's geographical position itself had changed.
Authoritarian Drift and Democratic Concerns
Human rights activists, such as Kenneth Roth, the former executive director of Human Rights Watch, have suggested Pashinyan's populism borders on authoritarianism and questioned whether European leaders such as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, should be showering him with so much support. The campaign has become wild, with Pashinyan posting video content ranging from eating pastries to listening impassively to the Russian rock star Zemfira, while becoming embroiled in rows with voters, accusing opposition leaders of being brainless foreign spies and threatening to eliminate them.
Controversy has also surrounded the sacking of the director of the Armenian genocide museum for giving JD Vance a book on Azerbaijan massacres and the removal from Armenia's passport stamps of the image of Mount Ararat, a national symbol that lies within present-day Turkey.
Pro-Russian Opposition and Foreign Interference
Pashinyan faces at least three pro-Russian nationalist parties, including Stronger Armenia, led by a Russian Armenian multi-billionaire, Samvel Karapetyan, the founder of the Tashir Group, a conglomerate with interests in Russia and ownership of Armenia's electricity network. Last week Karapetyan accused Pashinyan of trying hallucinogenic mushrooms in China and enjoying them so much he imported a ton of them, which he has been consuming before government meetings. Pashinyan says he will sue over the claims. Karapetyan has also promised a Ministry of Sex to address demographic decline and is fighting against the terms of the nationalisation of his electricity network.
Karapetyan was arrested last June after remarks that were interpreted as supporting a coup mounted by the Armenian church. He is now running his campaign from what might be described as house, or mansion, arrest and is barred from becoming an MP due to owning Cypriot and Russian passports. Other members of Stronger Armenia have been arrested for allegedly offering bribes.
Karapetyan accuses Pashinyan of betrayal by conceding so much to Azerbaijan and has warned that if the prime minister is re-elected, "we will not become a province of Russia, but a province of Azerbaijan." His model is clearly Georgian Dream, the pro-Russian group that has held power in Tbilisi since 2012.
Vladimir Putin recently suggested that Armenia stage a referendum on whether it wants to be a member of the EU or the Russian-led Eurasian Union. The Russian president is raising this issue before the elections, knowing EU membership is still deeply theoretical, to inject a polarising topic to the benefit of the pro-Russian candidates.
The Constitutional Hurdle
The final hurdle to ratification of the peace agreement initialled in the White House less than one year ago is Azerbaijan's demand that Armenia remove a reference in its constitution to the country's declaration of independence, a document that includes a call for unification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia says it has already renounced any territorial claims in the initialled peace treaty. Civil Contract says it will rewrite the constitution and aims to put this to a referendum by the end of the year, but it needs a constitutional majority of two-thirds of parliament's seats. Asked if there is a plan B to secure a referendum, Pashinyan said: "We will not give up. Peace and open borders are the right path for Armenia and the whole region."
Maria Karapetyan, a member of the standing committee on foreign relations, argued that the pro-Russian nationalist opponents have no agenda to match Real Armenia. She said: "They still entertain the idea that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh might have a viable option of returning. They propose keeping the issue open on the Armenian foreign policy agenda. But this is a recipe only for returning to the dynamic of conflict. If you do not have a plan, that just means having an issue, and that means there will be a price to pay – and usually that price is Armenia's sovereignty."
Civil Contract's chances would be improved if Azerbaijan made concessions ahead of polling day. Yerevan has also been waiting for months for Turkey to reopen its border with Armenia, which has been closed since 1993, 33 years ago. The release of some of the 19 Armenian prisoners held in Baku would also affirm Pashinyan's quiet diplomacy.
European Support and Russian Threats
Macron, who was in Armenia this month for a state visit and a meeting of the European Political Community, accused Russia of treachery not just in Ukraine. Referring to Russia's failure to come to Armenia's help at the time of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, he said: "Russia was not there [for Armenia] – no more than it was for Venezuela, Syria or Iran." Pashinyan even warmly shook the hands of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the two men spoke in English, not Russian, in what was described as a quiet declaration of independence that infuriated Moscow.
So far, Russia has responded only with subtle signals of disapproval of Armenia's pro-European track, such as banning imports of Jermuk, Armenian mineral water. Tigran Grigoryan from the Regional Center for Democracy and Security in Yerevan said a more structural threat to Moscow's leverage in Armenia and a possible red line would be nationalising the debt-ridden Russian-owned railways. Once less distracted by Ukraine, Putin could end subsidies on cheap Russian gas imports or even turn the taps off altogether.
Grigoryan said: "It is very possible they cannot deliver the new constitution and then we have a period of 'no peace, no war' for a long time. At the same time, Armenian politics will have become more polarised between a pro-Russian opposition and increasingly authoritarian government." He questioned how far a weakened Pashinyan could pivot away from Moscow towards Europe without provoking Russian retaliation.
Maria Karapetyan denied that her party's turn to Europe is a mirage that misleads the electorate. She said: "We are just exiting a paradigm when we were looking to Russia as our saviour. So we are not in a rush to enter a new dynamic thinking that the European Union is going to solve all our needs. My party thinks we do not look for saviours. It's OK for us that no one wants to save us."
Why This Matters:
Armenia's election in 12 days will determine whether a small democracy can chart an independent course between great powers while protecting displaced communities and prisoners of war. The choice between peace with painful compromises and nationalist resistance backed by Russian interference reflects broader challenges facing post-Soviet states seeking European integration. The fate of 100,000 displaced Armenians and 19 prisoners in Baku hangs in the balance, as does the question of whether democratic institutions can withstand authoritarian pressures from both domestic populism and foreign manipulation. The outcome will shape not only regional trade routes but the viability of multilateral peace frameworks and the protection of vulnerable populations caught between geopolitical ambitions. For democracies worldwide, Armenia's struggle illustrates the human costs of great power competition and the fragility of sovereignty without robust international support and domestic accountability.