Armenia faces national elections on 7 June that will determine whether the former Soviet republic pursues a controversial peace deal with Azerbaijan that could unlock significant trade corridors between Europe and Asia, or reverts to pro-Russian nationalist policies that have left the country economically isolated for decades. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is campaigning on what he calls Real Armenia, a vision that prioritizes open borders and regional connectivity over historical grievances about lost territories.
The Economic Vision
The opening of borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan could transform Armenia and the South Caucasus, Pashinyan has said, arguing that once peace is secured it would be as if Armenia's geographical position itself had changed. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said the government's aim was to turn Armenia's geography into a strategic asset. He said: "The challenge after decades is how to become a bridge rather than an obstacle. So this is what we are now trying to do in Armenia. Somehow we have come to understand that we can connect Europe with Central Asia, with the far east, with India, China, and this, in turn, can not only be a way to save our existence, our sovereignty, but also guarantee our further peaceful prosperity."
The so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or Tripp, linking Europe and Asia and built across Armenian territory as part of a peace deal with Baku, would be one part of the new connectivity plan. The geopolitical vision is at the heart of what Pashinyan is offering for his third consecutive term and turns the election into a decision on whether to back his call for Real Armenia or a historical Armenia.
The Real Armenia doctrine requires a painful peace with Azerbaijan and a pivot away from Russia towards the EU, something Pashinyan's Civil Contract party describes as a more diversified foreign policy. It also involves controversy, including the sacking of the director of the Armenian genocide museum for giving JD Vance a book on Azerbaijan massacres and the removal from Armenia's passport stamps of the image of Mount Ararat, a national symbol that lies within present-day Turkey.
The Political Opposition
Early polls show Civil Contract may be on course to win, despite the party having overseen two successive humiliating military disasters at the hands of Azerbaijan six years ago and three years ago. The second defeat involved the overnight forced displacement of 100,000 Armenians from the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The displaced refugees live in Yerevan and fear for their heritage. Nineteen prisoners from that war remain captive in Baku, including the region's first minister, Ruben Vardanyan, who claims Pashinyan has abandoned their cause.
Pashinyan faces at least three pro-Russian nationalist parties, including Stronger Armenia, led by a Russian Armenian multi-billionaire, Samvel Karapetyan, the founder of the Tashir Group, a conglomerate with interests in Russia and ownership of Armenia's electricity network. Last week Karapetyan accused Pashinyan of trying hallucinogenic mushrooms in China and enjoying them so much he imported a ton of them, which he has been consuming before government meetings. Pashinyan says he will sue over the claims. Karapetyan has also promised a Ministry of Sex to address demographic decline and is fighting against the terms of the nationalisation of his electricity network.
Karapetyan was arrested less than one year ago after remarks that were interpreted as supporting a coup mounted by the Armenian church. He is now running his campaign from what might be described as house, or mansion, arrest and is barred from becoming an MP due to owning Cypriot and Russian passports. Other members of Stronger Armenia have been arrested for allegedly offering bribes.
Human rights activists, such as Kenneth Roth, the former executive director of Human Rights Watch, have suggested Pashinyan's populism borders on authoritarianism and questioned whether European leaders such as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, should be showering him with so much support. Karapetyan accuses Pashinyan of betrayal by conceding so much to Azerbaijan and has warned that if the prime minister is re-elected, "we will not become a province of Russia, but a province of Azerbaijan." His model is clearly Georgian Dream, the pro-Russian group that has held power in Tbilisi since 2012.
Constitutional Hurdles and Regional Dynamics
The final hurdle to ratification of the peace agreement initialled in the White House less than one year ago is Azerbaijan's demand that Armenia remove a reference in its constitution to the country's declaration of independence, a document that includes a call for unification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia says it has already renounced any territorial claims in the initialled peace treaty. Civil Contract says it will rewrite the constitution and aims to put this to a referendum by the end of the year, but it needs a constitutional majority of two-thirds of parliament's seats. Asked if there is a plan B to secure a referendum, Pashinyan said: "We will not give up. Peace and open borders are the right path for Armenia and the whole region."
Civil Contract's chances would be improved if Azerbaijan made concessions ahead of polling day. Yerevan has also been waiting for months for Turkey to reopen its border with Armenia, which has been closed since 1993. The release of some of the 19 Armenian prisoners held in Baku would also affirm Pashinyan's quiet diplomacy.
Tigran Grigoryan from the Regional Center for Democracy and Security in Yerevan said: "It is very possible they cannot deliver the new constitution and then we have a period of 'no peace, no war' for a long time. At the same time, Armenian politics will have become more polarised between a pro-Russian opposition and increasingly authoritarian government." He questioned how far a weakened Pashinyan could pivot away from Moscow towards Europe without provoking Russian retaliation.
Vladimir Putin recently suggested that Armenia stage a referendum on whether it wants to be a member of the EU or the Russian-led Eurasian Union. The Russian president is raising this issue before the elections, knowing EU membership is still deeply theoretical, to inject a polarising topic to the benefit of the pro-Russian candidates.
So far, Russia has responded only with subtle signals of disapproval of Armenia's pro-European track, such as banning imports of Jermuk, Armenian mineral water. Grigoryan said a more structural threat to Moscow's leverage in Armenia and a possible red line would be nationalising the debt-ridden Russian-owned railways. Once less distracted by Ukraine, Putin could end subsidies on cheap Russian gas imports or even turn the taps off altogether.
Macron, who was in Armenia this month for a state visit and a meeting of the European Political Community, accused Russia of treachery not just in Ukraine. Referring to Russia's failure to come to Armenia's help at the time of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, he said: "Russia was not there [for Armenia] – no more than it was for Venezuela, Syria or Iran." Pashinyan even warmly shook the hands of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the two men spoke in English, not Russian, in what the article describes as a quiet declaration of independence that infuriated Moscow.
Maria Karapetyan, a member of the standing committee on foreign relations and a Pashinyan ally, denied that her party's turn to Europe is a mirage that misleads the electorate. She said: "We are just exiting a paradigm when we were looking to Russia as our saviour. So we are not in a rush to enter a new dynamic thinking that the European Union is going to solve all our needs. My party thinks we do not look for saviours. It's OK for us that no one wants to save us."
Why This Matters:
Armenia's election in 12 days represents a fundamental choice between economic pragmatism and nationalist grievance. The potential opening of borders closed 33 years ago could unlock significant trade routes connecting Europe with Central Asia and beyond, transforming Armenia from an isolated backwater into a transit hub. However, the path forward requires painful compromises including constitutional changes and acceptance of territorial losses that displaced 100,000 people. The outcome will test whether a small nation can successfully navigate between competing great powers through diversified relationships rather than dependence on a single patron. Russia's economic leverage through energy supplies and infrastructure ownership remains substantial, while European support offers long-term integration possibilities but few immediate security guarantees. The election also highlights tensions between democratic accountability and executive authority, as Pashinyan pursues controversial policies while facing accusations of authoritarian tendencies. For regional stability, the question is whether Armenia can achieve genuine sovereignty through market access and institutional reform, or whether geopolitical pressures will force it back into Moscow's orbit.