Armenia's government is pushing a vision of "peaceful prosperity" through new trade routes, a strategy that has already led to the forced displacement of 100,000 Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh three years ago. These displaced individuals, now living in Yerevan, fear for their heritage, while 19 prisoners from that conflict remain captive in Baku, with one claiming Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has abandoned their cause. This human cost underpins the government's push to transform the former Soviet republic into a "bridge" for capital and goods between Europe and Asia.
Pashinyan's "Real Armenia" doctrine, central to his bid for a third consecutive term in the national elections on 7 June, aims to turn the country's geography into a "strategic asset." Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated the goal is to connect Europe with Central Asia, the far east, India, and China, framing this as a path to "save our existence, our sovereignty, but also guarantee our further peaceful prosperity." This vision includes the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or Tripp," a proposed trade corridor across Armenian territory.
The Cost of "Prosperity"
The "Real Armenia" doctrine demands a "painful peace" with Azerbaijan and a pivot away from Russia towards the European Union, described by Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party as a "more diversified foreign policy." This shift involves controversial measures, such as the sacking of the director of the Armenian genocide museum and the removal of Mount Ararat from passport stamps, a national symbol now within Turkey. The peace agreement, initialled in the White House less than one year ago, hinges on Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia remove a reference in its constitution to unification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Civil Contract plans a referendum to rewrite the constitution by the end of the year, requiring a two-thirds parliamentary majority.
Early polls suggest Civil Contract may win, despite having overseen two successive military defeats at the hands of Azerbaijan six years ago and three years ago, which culminated in the mass displacement from Nagorno-Karabakh. Pashinyan's allies, such as Maria Karapetyan, a member of the standing committee on foreign relations, dismiss opposition calls to keep the Nagorno-Karabakh issue open, arguing it is a "recipe only for returning to the dynamic of conflict" and that "the price is Armenia’s sovereignty."
Competing Capital Interests
The election campaign is marked by a struggle between Pashinyan's pro-Western alignment and pro-Russian nationalist parties. Among these is Stronger Armenia, led by Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian Armenian multi-billionaire who founded the Tashir Group, a conglomerate with interests in Russia and ownership of Armenia’s electricity network. Karapetyan is fighting against the terms of the nationalization of his electricity network, highlighting a direct conflict over the privatization of collective resources and foreign capital control. He was arrested less than one year ago after remarks interpreted as supporting a coup and is running his campaign from what is described as house arrest, barred from becoming an MP due to owning Cypriot and Russian passports.
Russia has responded to Armenia's pro-European track with subtle signals of disapproval, including banning imports of Jermuk, Armenian mineral water. A more significant "structural threat to Moscow’s leverage" and a potential red line for Russia would be the nationalization of the "debt-ridden Russian-owned railways." Russian President Vladimir Putin could also end subsidies on cheap Russian gas imports or cut off supplies entirely, demonstrating the economic leverage exerted by foreign capital ownership.
The State's Role in Realigning Capital
Pashinyan's populist approach has drawn criticism, with human rights activists like Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, suggesting it "borders on authoritarianism." Pashinyan has accused opposition leaders of being "brainless foreign spies" and threatened to "eliminate them." Despite these concerns, European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have continued to support Pashinyan, with Macron accusing Russia of "treachery" for its failure to support Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Pashinyan's warm handshake with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking in English rather than Russian, was described as a "quiet declaration of independence" that angered Moscow.
Maria Karapetyan of Civil Contract denied that her party's turn to Europe is a "mirage," stating, "We are just exiting a paradigm when we were looking to Russia as our saviour." She added, "My party thinks we do not look for saviours. It’s OK for us that no one wants to save us," framing the pivot as self-reliance while the state actively seeks new imperial alignments. Tigran Grigoryan from the Regional Center for Democracy and Security in Yerevan warned that if the new constitution cannot be delivered, Armenia could face a prolonged period of "no peace, no war" and increased political polarization between a pro-Russian opposition and an "increasingly authoritarian government."