YEREVAN – Armenia’s government is moving to rewrite the nation’s constitution and open its borders, a policy Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan describes as “Real Armenia” in contrast to a “historical Armenia” focused on national grievances. This proposed constitutional overhaul, which Civil Contract party aims to put to a referendum by the end of the year, requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority and includes removing a reference to the country’s declaration of independence, a document that calls for unification with Nagorno-Karabakh.
The push for a “painful peace” with Azerbaijan and a pivot towards the European Union is central to Pashinyan’s bid for a third consecutive term in the national elections on 7 June. This shift involves opening borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan, a move Pashinyan claims would transform Armenia and the South Caucasus, making it as if the country’s geographical position itself had changed.
Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated the government’s aim is to turn Armenia’s geography into a strategic asset, seeking to become a “bridge rather than an obstacle.” Mirzoyan articulated this vision as a way to “connect Europe with Central Asia, with the far east, with India, China,” suggesting it could “not only be a way to save our existence, our sovereignty, but also guarantee our further peaceful prosperity.”
The Cost to the People
This “Real Armenia” doctrine follows two successive military defeats at the hands of Azerbaijan in 2020 and three years ago, which led to the overnight forced displacement of 100,000 Armenians from the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. These displaced refugees now reside in Yerevan and reportedly “fear for their heritage.” Nineteen prisoners from that conflict, including the region’s first minister, Ruben Vardanyan, remain captive in Baku, with Vardanyan claiming Pashinyan has abandoned their cause.
Further evidence of cultural dispossession under the current regime includes the sacking of the director of the Armenian genocide museum. Additionally, the image of Mount Ararat, a national symbol now located within present-day Turkey, has been removed from Armenia’s passport stamps, signaling a deliberate detachment from historical national identity.
The proposed “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” or Tripp, is a key component of the new connectivity plan. This route, linking Europe and Asia, is envisioned to be built across Armenian territory as part of a peace deal with Baku, integrating Armenia into a transnational economic framework.
Elite Interests and Resistance
Pashinyan’s pivot away from Russia towards the EU is described by his Civil Contract party as a “more diversified foreign policy.” European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have reportedly “showered” Pashinyan with support. Macron, who visited Armenia this month, accused Russia of treachery for its failure to assist Armenia during the Nagorno-Karabakh war, stating, “Russia was not there [for Armenia].”
This shift has provoked significant domestic opposition. Pashinyan faces at least three pro-Russian nationalist parties, including Stronger Armenia, led by Russian Armenian multi-billionaire Samvel Karapetyan. Karapetyan, whose conglomerate Tashir Group owns Armenia’s electricity network, has accused Pashinyan of betrayal for conceding so much to Azerbaijan and warned that re-election would make Armenia a “province of Azerbaijan.” Karapetyan was arrested last June after remarks interpreted as supporting a coup mounted by the Armenian church and is currently running his campaign under what is described as house arrest, barred from becoming an MP due to owning Cypriot and Russian passports.
Karapetyan has also promised a “Ministry of Sex to address demographic decline,” highlighting concerns about the nation’s future population. Other members of Stronger Armenia have been arrested for allegedly offering bribes, indicating institutional pressure against dissenting voices.
Vladimir Putin recently suggested Armenia stage a referendum on membership in either the EU or the Russian-led Eurasian Union. This intervention, occurring before the elections, is seen as an attempt to inject a polarizing topic to benefit pro-Russian candidates, underscoring the external pressures on Armenia’s sovereignty. Maria Karapetyan, a member of the standing committee on foreign relations and an ally of Pashinyan, denied that her party’s turn to Europe is a “mirage,” stating, “We are just exiting a paradigm when we were looking to Russia as our saviour.” She added, “My party thinks we do not look for saviours. It’s OK for us that no one wants to save us.”