EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored Armenia's “important role for European supply chains, specifically on the connectivity to the South Caucasus and Central Asia,” as Armenia hosted its first bilateral summit with the European Union in Yerevan. This diplomatic event signals a strategic reorientation for the Caucasus nation, moving away from its long-standing alliance with Russia. The summit followed the eighth gathering of the European Political Community, which brought dozens of European leaders to the Armenian capital.
Armenia's ties with Moscow, its longtime sponsor, have grown increasingly strained since 2023. This strain intensified after neighboring Azerbaijan fully reclaimed the Karabakh region, ending decades of rule by ethnic Armenian separatists. Armenian authorities accused Russian peacekeepers, deployed to the region, of failing to stop Azerbaijan’s onslaught. Moscow rejected these accusations, arguing its troops lacked a mandate to intervene while busy with its war in Ukraine. Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, described the war as “a belated demonstration that Russia is dangerously unreliable as a partner.”
Capital's New Frontiers
Since the Karabakh conflict, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government has pursued closer ties with the West, a move welcomed by the EU. EU Council President Antonio Costa thanked Pashinyan for “the courageous political decisions he has taken to bring Armenia closer to the European Union,” stating, “The direction of travel is unmistakable,” and stressing the "vital" need to "strengthen Armenian democracy and fight external interference and misinformation.” The EU's interest in Armenia's role for European supply chains was explicitly stated by von der Leyen.
Armenia has taken concrete steps to align with Western institutions. In its third year, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court in 2023, a move Moscow condemned as an “unfriendly step.” The court has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In its second year, Armenia also froze its participation in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization in 2024. The following year, in its first year, the Armenian parliament passed a law formally declaring the country’s intention to seek EU membership.
Despite this pivot, Armenia remains a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, a single market allowing the free movement of goods, capital, and labor. Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at talks with Pashinyan earlier this year, warned that Armenia could not simultaneously belong to both the EEU and the EU. Putin highlighted that Yerevan currently receives Russian natural gas at prices far below European market rates, a clear demonstration of Russia's economic leverage. Pashinyan acknowledged the incompatibility but stated Armenia could, for now, combine EEU membership with deepening EU cooperation.
The EU is offering material incentives for this reorientation. Anticipated announcements include financing for domestic reform and military assistance through the European Peace Facility, a fund primarily created to support Ukraine. An EU monitoring mission has been deployed along Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan for several years, and a new mission targeting hybrid threats has recently been approved, further solidifying the EU's presence as a new imperial garrison.
The Human Cost and Resistance
While the state apparatus shifts its allegiances, the human cost of these geopolitical maneuvers remains evident. Outside the EPC summit venue, which was surrounded by tight security, demonstrators held photos of Armenian prisoners being held in Azerbaijan. Opposition leader Aram Sargsyan, head of the Democratic Party of Armenia, told the Armenian Press Agency that European officials were voicing support for Pashinyan ahead of the upcoming June parliamentary elections and have “forgotten about the Armenians in prison in Azerbaijan.”
These concerns are echoed in the heightened tension between Azerbaijan and the EU. Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the EU ambassador last week to protest a European Parliament resolution demanding the release of Armenian prisoners of war and criticizing the treatment of Armenians in Karabakh. Lawmakers in Azerbaijan subsequently voted to suspend all cooperation with the European Parliament. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, addressing the EPC conference via video link, accused the European Parliament and the Parliamentary Assembly for the Council of Europe (PACE) of “double standards” for placing sanctions on Azerbaijan’s PACE delegation.
Prime Minister Pashinyan, in his ninth year in office, faces parliamentary elections in June. Richard Giragosian noted that Pashinyan’s government is likely to be returned largely by default, with the opposition unable to offer a credible alternative program, indicating the limited choices offered to the working class within the existing political framework. Giragosian also cautioned against framing Armenia’s foreign policy as a simple pivot from Russia to the West, pointing to significant diplomatic investment in Asia, including with Japan, South Korea, and China, suggesting a more complex strategy of engaging multiple capital blocs.