Asia’s premier defense summit opened in Singapore with defense ministers and other officials from across the region gathering under the familiar machinery of great-power competition, with concerns about China’s military expansion and uncertainty over the United States’ regional commitments dominating the agenda. The Shangri-La Dialogue, a stage for state power to posture over trade routes and military leverage, brought in Australia and other regional officials while the people most exposed to the fallout of these decisions remain far from the table.
Who Pays for the Power Games
Vietnam’s leader To Lam used the keynote address to point to the human and economic wreckage that can follow when strategic chokepoints become flashpoints. He told the audience, which included U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and a high-level delegation from China, that “Recent tensions along strategic maritime routes in the Middle East remind us that a single flashpoint can rapidly disrupt trade, energy supplies, logistics and social economic life across the globe.” That is the language of hierarchy laid bare: decisions made by states and militaries at the top ricochet through trade, energy, and daily life everywhere else.
Lam said the region has “benefited profoundly from globalization,” but also faces mounting pressure and is “the world's most dynamic center of growth, but also a theater of intense strategic competition, a region defined by vital maritime routes, yet fraught with risk.” He added, “What the region seeks is nether the mere presence nor absence of any major power, what it seeks is responsible commitment,” and said, “We recognize that competition is an enduring reality of international relations, but competition must be bound by law, guided by transparency and exercised with restraint.”
The Summit’s Favorite Word: Sovereignty
The report said Lam has consolidated his power in Vietnam this year, becoming both Communist Party general secretary and president of the strategically important Southeast Asian nation, departing from its tradition of shared leadership. Vietnam has competing maritime claims with Beijing that have led to confrontations, while also being heavily tied economically to China, its biggest two-way trade partner. The United States is Vietnam’s largest export destination and has been seeking to make diplomatic inroads and expand defense contracts to pull some of that market away from Hanoi’s traditional partner, Russia.
Recently leaked documents showed that even after elevating relations with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, Vietnam’s military remained skeptical of American intentions and had taken steps to defend against a possible American “war of aggression.” That detail cuts through the summit’s polished language: behind the talk of partnership, the military apparatus still plans for conflict, and ordinary people are left to live with the consequences.
Washington, Beijing, and the Market for Fear
At a meeting with Lam and Vietnam’s defense minister ahead of Lam’s speech, Hegseth “applauded Vietnam’s rapid military modernization, which will strengthen Vietnam’s ability to defend its sovereignty and our shared interests,” according to a statement from the Pentagon. Hegseth was due to speak on Saturday morning and was making his second appearance at the event. Last year in Singapore, Hegseth said “the threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent,” and that its military was “rehearsing for the real deal.” He said Washington would bolster its defenses to counter what the Pentagon sees as rapidly developing threats, particularly in China’s aggressive stance toward Taiwan.
The report said Hegseth’s speech comes about two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump visited Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, where Xi warned that the two countries could clash over Taiwan if the issue was not handled properly. After the meeting, Trump called Xi a “great leader” and said they were going to have a “fantastic future together.” Trump also raised questions about Washington’s willingness to defend Taiwan, calling a new $14 billion arms package that he has yet to greenlight “a very good negotiating chip for us” with China.
China claims the self-governing democratic island as its own, and Xi has not ruled out using force to take it. The U.S. supplies Taiwan with modern aircraft, missiles and other weapons to help it defend itself, while following a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene militarily if China attacked. The report said Trump has shown greater ambivalence toward Taiwan than his predecessors, fueling speculation about whether he could be persuaded to dial back American support.
Hegseth’s speech was to focus on the military’s “common-sense approach to safeguarding U.S. vital national interests in the Indo-Pacific,” according to the Pentagon. That phrase, stripped of its varnish, is the old story: states, armies, and defense contracts arranging the region around their own interests while everyone else is expected to absorb the risk.