Australian universities are filling about two-thirds of their allocated international student places as government visa settings and political proposals reshape who can study in the country. In October, only five public universities had reached more than 80% of capacity, and all were in capital cities. Regional campuses have empty places, shrinking revenue and job cuts.
A costly gate to higher education
Charles Sturt University has filled 40% of its international student cap this year. Mike Ferguson, pro vice-chancellor of international students at Charles Sturt University, said recruitment was 35% below last year despite expectations of growth, and the university had only 20% of its pre-pandemic international student volume. Charles Sturt estimates the gap is costing $35m and has announced job cuts and restructuring.
Ferguson blamed government policy, including a visa application fee of $2,500, high refusal rates and uncertainty after the Coalition and One Nation announced proposals targeting international students. Regional universities primarily recruited from south Asian countries, where visa refusal rates were about 53%.
“It's not only resulting in us losing what we believe to be largely genuine students ... but it's also creating a large deterrent from new students to come in and apply, knowing they're having to pay world record visa fees with only a one in two chance of actually getting a visa,” Ferguson said. Applicants pay the fee before a decision, then face roughly even odds of refusal.
Prof Andrew Norton, an expert in higher education, said falling international enrolments were affecting all public universities because international fees cross-subsidise teaching and research. “It creates massive problems because international students are basically the only profitable aspect of university operations,” he said.
Who absorbs the shortfall
Western Sydney University vice-chancellor George Williams said the decline was putting pressure on university budgets and services for domestic students. “In our case, international students heavily subsidise domestic students, and it puts real pressure on the services we can offer to domestic students,” Williams said. He warned financial deficits could affect those students, while heated political debate could make prospective students wonder “whether they would be welcome in Australia”.
Adelaide University told the ABC in September that it had reached 60% of its international student capacity after its merger with the University of South Australia, creating a potential $90m revenue shortfall. The government's 2026 planning level was 295,000 international students, but numbers were tracking towards 250,000, just above the Coalition's proposed level of 240,000.
Labor will reduce the number of international students eligible to bring family to Australia while studying. The Coalition has promised to abolish temporary graduate visas. Ferguson said Charles Sturt supported Labor's decision to crack down on onshore student transfers and visa hopping. Duncan Bentley, vice-chancellor of Federation University in regional Victoria, said his university had long called for a 12-month ban on course hopping, except in exceptional and genuine circumstances.
Campaign promises, scarce guarantees
Federation University has urged the government to create a special regional skills student visa for international students studying fields such as allied health or teaching. Bentley said eligibility should cover overseas students attending a regional university in a course on a regional skills shortage list, on the premise that domestic regional graduates can't meet demand.
Phil Honeywood, chief executive of the International Education Association of Australia, said dwindling international student numbers could add to regional skills shortages. “The high non-refundable visa cost makes the system more like a lottery ticket,” he said, pointing to shortages of nurses, childcare workers, aged care workers and engineers in regional communities. He said fewer students who couldn't stay after their degrees could create a cascading skills shortage.
Victoria's election coverage also included promises on training and regional investment. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson proposed 10 new technical colleges under a Coalition government, with full-time enrolment for students in years 10 to 12. The Coalition estimated the plan would cost $222 million over eight years and educate a cumulative 5,000 students in plumbing, electrical work, carpentry, healthcare and hospitality.
Premier Ben Carroll pledged a re-elected Labor government would direct 100% of mineral resource royalties into regional Victoria. He estimated the state's minerals endowment could generate $500 million over the next four years and said the money would go to regional infrastructure, including schools and hospitals. The Victorian election was scheduled for November 28. Separately, the Australian Financial Review reported a record number of Year 12 students had secured university offers before their HSC exams, prompting concerns about grade inflation.