Australia set a planning level of 295,000 international students for 2026, yet enrolments are tracking towards 250,000. Universities report empty places, lost revenue and pressure on services for domestic students. Only five public universities had filled more than 80% of their allocated international student capacity, Department of Education figures released in October show. All five sit in capital cities.
Visa rules and university finances
Charles Sturt University, with campuses across regional New South Wales, had filled 40% of its international student cap this year. Mike Ferguson, the university’s pro vice-chancellor of international students, said enrolments were “around 35% down on where we were last year,” despite expectations of growth. The university now has 20% of its pre-pandemic international student volume, he said.
The shortfall in international student recruitment is costing Charles Sturt an estimated $35m. The university has announced job cuts and restructuring. Ferguson blamed government policy, including the increase in visa applications to $2,500, high refusal rates and uncertainty after the Coalition and One Nation announced plans targeting international students.
Regional universities primarily recruited students from south Asian countries, Ferguson said, where visa refusal rates stood at about 53%. He said fees and refusals were deterring applicants and stopping students he described as “largely genuine” from attending. Ferguson also backed Labor’s crackdown on onshore student transfers and visa hopping, saying it would improve the system’s integrity.
Prof Andrew Norton, a higher education expert, said falling international student numbers were affecting public universities because international student fees cross-subsidise teaching and research. “International students are basically the only profitable aspect of university operations,” he said.
Western Sydney University vice-chancellor George Williams said the drop in overseas students was putting university budgets under pressure and could affect domestic students. International students “heavily subsidise domestic students,” he said, and budget pressure affects the services universities can offer them. Williams added that the political debate could make prospective students wonder whether Australia would welcome them.
Regional skills and political choices
Federation University in regional Victoria has also reported far fewer international enrolments. Vice-chancellor Duncan Bentley urged the government to create a special regional skills student visa for overseas students taking courses in fields such as allied health or teaching. He supported a 12-month ban on course hopping, except in exceptional and genuine circumstances, and proposed opening the regional visa to courses on a regional skills shortage list.
Phil Honeywood, chief executive of the International Education Association of Australia, warned that falling regional enrolments could deepen skills shortages. He pointed to shortages of nurses, childcare workers, aged care workers and engineers in regional communities. Fewer international students able to remain after graduation, he said, could trigger a “cascading skill shortage.”
Adelaide University told the ABC in September that it had reached 60% of its international student capacity after merging with the University of South Australia, leaving a potential $90m revenue shortfall. International student numbers were tracking just above the Coalition’s proposed level of 240,000. Labor plans to reduce the number of international students eligible to bring family to Australia while studying; the Coalition has promised to abolish temporary graduate visas.
Domestic training proposals
In Victoria, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson proposed 10 new technical colleges under a Coalition government. The full-time colleges would enrol students in years 10 to 12 and train them in plumbing, electrical work, carpentry, healthcare and hospitality. The Coalition estimated the plan would cost $222 million over eight years and educate a cumulative 5,000 students. Wilson said the proposal would offer students who don’t want university another route to a career, and tied it to the workforce needed to build more homes.
Premier Ben Carroll pledged that a re-elected Labor government would direct 100% of mineral resource royalties into regional Victoria, including for schools and hospitals. He estimated the state’s minerals endowment could generate $500 million over the next four years. The Victorian election was scheduled for November 28.