Australian National University scientists have developed world-first technology to monitor eucalypt forest flammability from space, but the project remains grounded due to a funding gap that experts warn is eroding the country's disaster preparedness capability.
The OzFuel project uses infrared sensors to detect chemicals that influence how easily eucalypt forests ignite. It's been proven in the lab. What it needs now is $15 million for a pathfinder mission to test the technology in orbit. That mission could launch in 18 months, according to Anna Moore, director of ANU's Institute for Space. But without established funding pathways, the project sits in what researchers call the "technology Valley of Death" — viable science that can't attract commercial investment until it's proven in space.
How the Technology Works
Marta Yebra, director of the ANU Bushfire Research Centre of Excellence and leader of the OzFuel project, explained that eucalypt flammability isn't determined by a single variable. "One of the properties is moisture content, but there are other chemical components like oil content, cellulose and lignin," she said. "These all make the leaves more flammable."
ANU researchers have analyzed thousands of eucalypt leaf samples to identify which infrared wavelengths can detect key chemical compounds and flammability traits. They've adapted instruments originally designed for astronomers to observe distant planets, repurposing them for Earth observation. Rob Sharp, director of ANU's Advanced Instrumentation Technology Centre, confirmed the concept works in the laboratory. "We're now at the stage from a technical perspective where we're looking to test it for viability on a spacecraft, and then attach it to a small satellite and get the prototype up in orbit," he said.
The Funding Gap's Human Cost
Moore said the lack of funding pathways puts projects like OzFuel at risk of losing key staff who hold the intellectual property. "When a project like this is on hold, you not only lose key staff who hold the intellectual property that makes this a reality in the first place, you also lose momentum," she said. Then she added the stakes: "And then lastly, we're talking here about bushfires. And the more we wait, the more bushfires we're going to have."
Australia's reliance on foreign-owned satellite data during natural disasters was highlighted in the royal commission following the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires. In March 2022, the Australian government announced a $1.16 million plan to build four Earth-observation satellites as part of the National Space Mission for Earth Observation. That program was axed as part of budget cuts a year later.
Buying Foreign Data Instead of Building Domestic Capacity
Stuart Phinn, from the University of Queensland's School of the Environment, called Earth observation data "a critical piece of Australia's national security infrastructure for disaster preparedness and response." He warned that without action now, Australia will gradually lose capability and have to spend more money buying data that may be unreliable or not fit for Australian environments.
In July this year, the Australian government released its Statement on Space, listing Earth observation as a key priority for supporting public safety during emergencies. The Department of Industry, Science and Resources told the ABC that the government was investing in relationships with the United States, the European Union and Japan, including a $448.7 million investment over 11 years for access to data from the United States Landsat Next satellite mission. It didn't comment on whether there's any plan to build Australia's own national satellite Earth observation capability.
The Economic Case for Prevention
Yebra said investing in prevention has a multiplier effect. "There are lots of studies that broadly [indicate] that in natural disasters, $1 invested in prevention results in $10 of benefits in the damage that is avoided," she said. Over the next 30 years, she added, Australia could save more than $8.5 billion with more investment in technologies that help plan rather than react to bushfires. As Australia braces for an El Niño summer and escalating natural disaster costs, the technology sits ready. It just can't get off the ground.
Why This Matters:
Australia has developed homegrown technology that could provide critical early warning for bushfire risk, yet it's spending nearly half a billion dollars to access American satellite data instead of investing $15 million to prove its own system works. The funding gap doesn't just threaten one project — it risks losing the scientists and engineers who built the technology, eroding Australia's capacity to develop tools tailored to its unique fire-prone landscapes. With climate change intensifying fire seasons and natural disaster costs mounting, the choice to rely on foreign data rather than build domestic capability leaves communities dependent on systems not designed for eucalypt forests. Every fire season that passes without this technology in orbit represents not just lost scientific opportunity, but potentially lost homes, lives, and billions in preventable damage that Australian-made monitoring could help avoid.