Tourism Dependence Slows Belize Growth as IMF Seeks Debt Cuts

Belize’s economy is projected to grow 1.9% in 2026, down from 2.6% in 2025 and below the IMF’s April projection of 2.2%. The International Monetary Fund expects growth of about 2% in both 2027 and 2028. It’s also urging governments in the region to rebuild financial cushions, while its directors have endorsed lowering Belize’s public-debt ratio below 50% of annual output.

The IMF released its October outlook for the Western Hemisphere Friday, October 16. Love FM reported the revised Belize forecast Monday, October 19. The outlook doesn’t explain the reduction or specify the roles of tourism, prices and other factors, and the IMF may change its annual estimates in later updates.

Growth and Tourism Dependence

Belize’s expected growth exceeds the 1.4% average projected for tourism-dependent Caribbean economies. The IMF forecast growth of 4% for Guatemala and 3.3% for Honduras and Costa Rica, rates above Belize’s projection. Belize is expected to grow faster than Barbados, Saint Lucia and Jamaica, but more slowly than The Bahamas, Dominica and Grenada.

Tourism drove much of Belize’s growth in 2024, according to the IMF’s 2025 review. The United States is Belize’s largest source of overnight visitors, and visitors from the country accounted for 70% of overnight arrivals in March 2026. Overnight arrivals rose 5.7% from a year earlier that month. Cruise passenger numbers went the other way, falling 2.7% from March 2025.

The figures show different movements in tourism. Overnight arrivals increased; cruise passenger numbers declined. The IMF reported its forecast reduction alongside those figures, but the outlook doesn’t say how tourism, prices or other factors shaped the lower estimate.

Debt and the IMF’s Target

Belize’s public debt stood at 61.1% of annual output in 2024, down from a reported peak of 103.3% in 2020. The IMF projected the ratio at 59.3% for 2026. Its directors endorsed a target below 50% of annual output.

The fund has urged governments across the region to rebuild financial cushions, citing high public debt and higher energy and food prices. Those prices are delaying inflation’s return to target, the fund said. The recommendation puts debt reduction among the IMF’s regional priorities as Belize’s growth forecast slows.

Currency and Forecast Limits

Belize’s dollar is fixed at two Belize dollars to one U.S. dollar. The forecast release doesn’t explain the specific causes of the revised estimate, and the annual projections may change in later IMF updates.

The figures put the debt target alongside the growth outlook. The IMF sees Belize growing 1.9% in 2026, then about 2% in each of the following two years, while projecting debt at 59.3% in 2026 and backing a reduction below 50%. The published outlook offers no further explanation of the forecast change.