IMF Lowers Belize Growth Forecast to 1.9%

The International Monetary Fund now projects Belize’s economy will grow 1.9% in 2026, down from its April estimate of 2.2% and below the 2.6% growth recorded for 2025. The IMF expects growth of about 2% in both 2027 and 2028.

The IMF’s Forecast

The IMF released its October outlook for the Western Hemisphere Friday, October 16. Love FM reported the revised Belize forecast Monday, October 19. At 1.9%, Belize’s estimate sits above the 1.4% average projected for tourism-dependent Caribbean economies, but below Guatemala’s 4% and the 3.3% forecasts for Honduras and Costa Rica.

The IMF expects Belize to grow faster than Barbados, Saint Lucia and Jamaica, but slower than The Bahamas, Dominica and Grenada. The base report doesn’t give individual growth estimates for those countries. It also doesn’t say why the IMF lowered Belize’s forecast or explain the possible roles of tourism, prices and other factors.

The forecast concerns economic output; it gives no figures for migration, population change or the effects of the growth estimate on Belize’s native population. Nor does the report identify any change in Belize’s legal sovereignty or transfer of decision-making authority. In the account, the IMF’s stated role is to issue projections and urge regional governments to rebuild financial cushions.

Tourism and External Exposure

Belize depends heavily on tourism, with the United States as its largest source of overnight visitors. The IMF’s 2025 review says tourism drove much of the country’s growth in 2024. In March 2026, visitors from the United States made up 70% of overnight arrivals, a figure that rose 5.7% from a year earlier.

Cruise passenger numbers went the other way. They fell 2.7% in March 2026 compared with March 2025. The reported figures separate overnight arrivals from cruise passengers, but don’t say how either measure shaped the IMF’s revised annual growth projection. The report names no particular businesses or institutions that stand to benefit from the forecast, and describes no policy meant to expand or restrict migration.

Debt and the IMF’s Advice

The IMF urged governments in the region to rebuild financial cushions, citing high public debt and higher energy and food prices that are delaying inflation’s return to target. Belize’s public debt fell to 61.1% of annual output in 2024, down from a reported peak of 103.3% in 2020. The IMF projected debt at 59.3% for 2026, and its directors endorsed bringing the ratio below 50%.

Belize’s dollar is fixed at two Belize dollars to one U.S. dollar. The report gives that exchange-rate arrangement, but doesn’t describe a change to it or link it directly to the lower growth estimate. The IMF’s public-debt recommendation is the clearest policy direction attributed to the institution in the account; no enforcement measure or national response appears. The report says the growth projections may change in later updates.