PNG Parliament Keeps Bougainville Waiting on Independence

Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in 2019, but Papua New Guinea’s parliament still holds the final say—and hasn’t decided. The referendum result wasn’t binding, and a parliamentary decision remains pending as Bougainville’s leaders ask supporters to accept more delay.

In September, Kokoda constituency declared itself “independence ready.” At the ceremony, Ishmael Toroama, president of the Autonomous Bougainville Government, pledged funding for a hospital and a police station. Similar ceremonies are taking place across Bougainville, while PNG’s parliament in Port Moresby still controls the political timetable.

Toroama said in June, “Trust is the foundation of every agreement. Where agreed processes have been departed from, concerns have naturally arisen.” He added that “recent events violating these existing understandings cannot be ignored or downplayed,” while urging Bougainvilleans to “remain patient.” That appeal falls on leaders and supporters in Bougainville; PNG’s parliament holds the authority to make the final decision.

A vote without a deadline

In 2019, 97.7 percent of Bougainvilleans voted for independence. The 2001 Bougainville peace agreement required a referendum within 10 to 15 years after the election of Bougainville’s first autonomous government, but gave PNG’s parliament the final decision and set no deadline for acting on the result.

Prime Minister James Marape proposed a vote for August 30 this year. Parliament formally received the referendum result on August 27, then adjourned without voting. Peter Tsiamalili Jr, Bougainville’s regional MP and the leader of government business, has announced a two-day debate for October 20-21. Whether parliament will vote or adjourn again without a decision remains unclear.

The 2022 Era Kone Covenant set 2027 as the outer limit for implementing independence or another settlement, but it didn’t set a date for parliament to vote. Its interim deadline to table the referendum result by the end of 2023 was missed by almost three years. With no parliamentary deadline, Port Moresby can postpone a difficult decision while Bougainville’s leaders shoulder the work of keeping supporters patient.

Many who sustained the peace are former combatants who staked their credibility on a political resolution. Toroama was himself a rebel commander, and he’s warned that trust is under strain. Each postponement makes his appeal harder to maintain.

The election clock and disputed rules

PNG’s next election is approaching. Under the provisional timetable, voting is due from June 26 to July 9 of next year. If parliament doesn’t vote beforehand, a new parliament will inherit the decision and may first consider how much of its predecessor’s work to accept. Bougainville’s leaders have set September 1, 2027, as the “firm timetable” for a further stage of self-government; by then, the new PNG parliament would be barely a month old.

The two sides have agreed that Marape and Toroama will jointly determine the vote date. In June, parliament set a ratification threshold of a three-quarters majority, or 89 of 118 members. Bougainville’s leaders dispute both the threshold and how the rule was adopted. A rushed vote under contested procedures could deepen mistrust. An open-ended process, meanwhile, risks carrying the decision beyond the election and into conflict with Bougainville’s timetable.

In August, when the referendum result was tabled, opposition leader James Nomane told parliament the government should “not kick the can down the road” and urged it to say when MPs would vote. His statement put the delay before parliament; it didn’t settle who would act next or when.

Canberra’s narrow role

Australia has kept a careful distance. In 2022, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said Canberra’s job was to “support Papua New Guinea.” Bougainville’s leadership interpreted that as a retreat from neutrality, and Canberra clarified it would support whatever the two sides agreed.

Australia witnessed the 2001 agreement and led the Peace Monitoring Group that helped hold the ceasefire. Under the Pukpuk Treaty, which entered into force in July, Australia and PNG are formal allies and must consult on threats to either country’s sovereignty, peace or stability. If Bougainville acts on its own timetable in 2027 and Port Moresby sees that as a challenge to its sovereignty, Canberra might be asked to consult as an ally. Marape’s government considers the referendum part of PNG’s constitutional process and may view Australian questions about parliamentary scheduling as pressure.

Australia’s proposed role is limited: use existing ministerial talks to seek a vote date and a timetable for addressing the disputed voting rules, without shaping the outcome. Both governments should publicly explain why a deadline slips, who must act next and when parliament will return to the issue. If a vote before the election proves impossible, a joint record of what’s agreed, what remains contested and when talks will resume could help preserve the handover to the next parliament. With both sides’ consent, Australia could help maintain that record. For Bougainvilleans waiting on a decision made elsewhere, a clear account of what comes next is still missing.