PNG Parliament Holds Bougainville Independence Vote

In September, the Kokoda constituency declared itself “independence ready,” but Papua New Guinea’s parliament still has the final say over Bougainville’s independence and hasn’t voted on the referendum result. In 2019, 97.7 percent of Bougainvilleans voted for independence. The referendum wasn’t binding.

Who Holds the Decision

Prime Minister James Marape proposed a vote for August 30 this year. Parliament formally received the referendum result on August 27, then adjourned without voting. Peter Tsiamalili Jr, Bougainville’s regional MP and the leader of government business, announced a two-day debate for October 20-21. It remains unclear whether MPs will vote or what will happen if parliament adjourns again without a decision.

The 2001 Bougainville peace agreement required a referendum within 10 to 15 years after the election of Bougainville’s first autonomous government. It gave PNG’s parliament authority to make the final decision on independence but set no deadline for parliamentary action. The 2022 Era Kone Covenant set 2027 as the outer limit for implementing independence or another settlement, but it didn’t set a date for parliament to vote.

The covenant’s interim deadline to table the referendum result in parliament by the end of 2023 was missed by almost three years. With no deadline for a parliamentary decision, Port Moresby can postpone a politically difficult vote, while Bougainville’s leaders must persuade supporters to accept the delay.

Trust Under Strain

Many of the people who sustained the peace are former combatants who staked their credibility on a political resolution. Ishmael Toroama, president of the Autonomous Bougainville Government, was himself a rebel commander. He has warned that trust is under strain while urging Bougainvilleans to remain patient.

In June, Toroama said, “Trust is the foundation of every agreement. Where agreed processes have been departed from, concerns have naturally arisen.” He added that “recent events violating these existing understandings cannot be ignored or downplayed,” while urging Bougainvilleans to “remain patient.” Each postponement makes that appeal harder to maintain, the article says.

A PNG election is approaching. Under the provisional timetable, voting is due from June 26 to July 9 of next year. If parliament doesn’t vote beforehand, a new parliament will inherit the decision and may first consider how much of its predecessor’s work to accept. Bougainville’s leaders have set September 1, 2027, as the “firm timetable” for a further stage of self-government; by then, the new PNG parliament would be barely a month old.

Australia’s Role and the Limits of a Timetable

Australia witnessed the 2001 agreement and led the Peace Monitoring Group that helped hold the ceasefire. In 2022, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said Canberra’s job was to “support Papua New Guinea.” Bougainville’s leadership interpreted that as a retreat from neutrality, and Canberra clarified that it would support whatever the two sides agreed.

The Pukpuk Treaty entered into force in July. Under it, Australia and PNG are formal allies and must consult on threats to either country’s sovereignty, peace or stability. If Bougainville acts on its own timetable in 2027 and Port Moresby sees that as a challenge to its sovereignty, Canberra might be asked to consult as an ally. Marape’s government considers the referendum part of PNG’s constitutional process and may view Australian questions about parliamentary scheduling as pressure.

In August, opposition leader James Nomane told parliament the government should “not kick the can down the road” and urged it to say when MPs would vote. PNG and Bougainville agreed that Marape and Toroama will jointly determine the date. In June, parliament set a ratification threshold of a three-quarters majority, or 89 of 118 members. Bougainville’s leaders dispute both the threshold and how the rule was adopted.

The proposed Australian role is to use existing ministerial talks to seek a vote date and a timetable for addressing the disputed voting rules, without shaping the outcome. That wouldn’t decide the vote or resolve the dispute over the threshold. The proposal also calls for both governments to explain publicly why a deadline slips, who must act next and when parliament will return to the issue. If a vote before the election proves impossible, a joint record of agreements, contested issues and the date talks will resume could help preserve the handover to the next parliament. Australia could help maintain that record with both sides’ consent. In June, parliament set the threshold at 89 of 118 members.