Bougainville Independence Vote Faces PNG Delay

Kokoda constituency declared itself “independence ready” in September, but Papua New Guinea’s parliament still has the final say on Bougainville’s independence and hasn’t voted on the referendum result. The decision remains with Port Moresby, while Bougainville’s leaders are asking supporters to wait for a parliamentary process that has no firm voting deadline.

The vote and the delay

In 2019, 97.7 percent of Bougainvilleans voted for independence. The referendum wasn’t binding, and PNG’s parliament kept authority to make the final decision. Parliament received the result on August 27, then adjourned without voting.

Prime Minister James Marape had proposed a vote for August 30 this year. Peter Tsiamalili Jr, Bougainville’s regional MP and leader of government business, has now announced a two-day debate for October 20-21. MPs may vote during the debate, but it’s unclear what will happen if parliament adjourns again without deciding.

The 2001 Bougainville peace agreement required a referendum within 10 to 15 years after the election of Bougainville’s first autonomous government. It gave PNG’s parliament authority to decide on independence, but set no deadline for parliamentary action. The 2022 Era Kone Covenant set 2027 as the outer limit for implementing independence or another settlement, without setting a date for parliament to vote.

The covenant’s interim deadline to table the referendum result in parliament by the end of 2023 was missed by almost three years. Without a parliamentary deadline, Port Moresby can postpone a politically difficult decision, while Bougainville’s leadership must keep support behind the agreed process.

Trust and the next parliament

Many people who sustained the peace are former combatants who staked their credibility on a political resolution. Ishmael Toroama, president of the Autonomous Bougainville Government, was a rebel commander himself. He has warned that trust is under strain and urged Bougainvilleans to remain patient.

In June, Toroama said, “Trust is the foundation of every agreement. Where agreed processes have been departed from, concerns have naturally arisen.” He added that “recent events violating these existing understandings can’t be ignored or downplayed,” while urging Bougainvilleans to “remain patient.” According to the article, each postponement makes that appeal harder to maintain.

A PNG election is approaching. Under the provisional timetable, voting is due from June 26 to July 9 of next year. If parliament doesn’t vote beforehand, the next parliament will inherit the decision and may first consider how much of its predecessor’s work to accept.

Bougainville’s leaders have set September 1, 2027, as the “firm timetable” for a further stage of self-government. By then, the new PNG parliament would be barely a month old, according to the article. The independence process now faces competing timelines: the date set by Bougainville’s leadership and a national parliamentary decision that remains unscheduled.

Australia’s role and disputed rules

Australia has kept a careful distance from the issue. In 2022, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said Canberra’s job was to “support Papua New Guinea.” Bougainville’s leadership saw the statement as a retreat from neutrality, and Canberra clarified that it would support whatever the two sides agreed.

The Pukpuk Treaty entered into force in July, making Australia and PNG formal allies who must consult on threats to either country’s sovereignty, peace or stability. If Bougainville acts on its own timetable in 2027 and Port Moresby views that as a challenge to its sovereignty, Canberra might be asked to consult as an ally. Marape’s government considers the referendum part of PNG’s constitutional process and may view Australian questions about parliamentary scheduling as pressure.

In August, opposition leader James Nomane told parliament the government should “not kick the can down the road” and urged it to say when MPs would vote. PNG and Bougainville have agreed that Marape and Toroama will jointly determine the date. Parliament set a ratification threshold in June of a three-quarters majority, or 89 of 118 members. Bougainville’s leaders dispute both the threshold and how parliament adopted the rule.

The article says Australia should use existing ministerial talks to seek a vote date and a timetable for addressing the disputed voting rules, without shaping the outcome. It also calls for both governments to explain publicly why any deadline slips, who must act next and when parliament will return to the issue. If a vote before the election proves impossible, a joint record of agreements, disputes and the date talks will resume could help preserve the handover to the next parliament. With both sides’ consent, Australia could help maintain that record.