Brazil's Supreme Court cleared the way for campaign leaflets featuring former president Jair Bolsonaro's photo, removing a legal obstacle as the October 4 presidential race intensifies. But it's crime, not court battles, that's driving voter anxiety.
Crime has emerged as the top election concern for Brazilians ahead of the presidential vote. Residents are seeking tougher approaches to gangs and security, and the issue is shaping candidate promises and policy emphasis. The focus on public safety reflects deep frustration with violence that touches daily life across the country's cities and favelas.
The 80-Year-Old Seeking a Fourth Term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, is seeking a fourth term at age 80. Born 27 October 1945 in Caetés, Pernambuco, Lula is a former metalworker and union leader who co-founded the Workers' Party, or PT, 46 years ago and has now served three terms. He asks Brazil for a fourth term on October 4, two days before turning 81.
Lula was born into poverty in Brazil's arid northeast. He moved with his family to São Paulo as a child, worked from age 12, trained as a lathe operator and lost the little finger of his left hand in a press accident at 19. In the late 1970s, he led metalworkers' strikes that defied the military dictatorship. In 1980 he co-founded the PT.
He lost presidential campaigns in 1989, 1994 and 1998 before winning the presidency 24 years ago in 2002. He served as president from 2003 to 2010 during a commodity boom that lifted millions through Bolsa Família, raised the minimum wage in real terms, opened universities to the poor and helped Brazil pay off the IMF. He left office with approval above 80 percent and enough political capital to elect Dilma Rousseff.
Prison, Annulment, and Comeback
Lula's political fall came in the Lava Jato, or Car Wash, investigation. Judge Sérgio Moro convicted him 9 years ago of receiving a beachfront apartment as a bribe. He entered prison in April 2018 and spent 580 days behind bars, barred from the 2018 election.
In 2021, the Supreme Court annulled the convictions, ruling that Moro had been biased. The annulment restored Lula's political rights. He returned to office on 1 January 2023 after beating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 in the tightest presidential race in Brazil's history, 50.9 to 49.1.
A Harder Second Act
The comeback presidency has been harder than the legend. Approval stands at 45 percent against 51 percent disapproval, and his rejection rate is near 50 percent, the highest in the field. Final-week polls give him the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro, with Datafolha showing 40 to 36, and a runoff inside the margin of error.
Lula has framed the race as a defense of democracy against the movement of a convicted coup plotter. His opponent frames it as a referendum on an octogenarian machine politician who has been in public life for half a century. The first presidential debate of the campaign never happened because both front-runners stayed away, each calculating he had more to lose than to win. Lula leads the first round in every in-person poll and leads no runoff simulation beyond the margin of error.
Why This Matters:
Brazil's election tests whether voters prioritize democratic institutions and social programs over demands for tougher security responses to crime. Lula's presidency from 2003 to 2010 demonstrated how targeted social investment can reduce poverty at scale, but his current 51 percent disapproval shows the limits of past achievements when current anxieties go unaddressed. The focus on crime as the top voter concern reflects real insecurity, but also risks empowering authoritarian approaches that historically haven't solved violence and have undermined civil liberties. How Brazil balances public safety with democratic protections will shape not just the next four years, but the country's broader trajectory on inequality and rights. The tight polling and high rejection rates suggest a deeply divided electorate wrestling with fundamental questions about who deserves security, what institutions can deliver it, and whether social progress or punitive measures offer the path forward.