Brazil's Supreme Court cleared the way for campaign leaflets featuring former president Jair Bolsonaro's image, removing a legal obstacle as the country heads toward October elections with crime dominating voter concerns and an 80-year-old incumbent seeking an unprecedented fourth term.
Crime has emerged as the top election concern for Brazilians ahead of the presidential vote. Residents are seeking tougher approaches to gangs and security, and the issue is shaping candidate promises and policy emphasis. The shift reflects growing frustration with public safety failures that transcend traditional party lines.
The Aging Incumbent
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, is seeking a fourth term at age 80. He asks Brazil for a fourth term on October 4, two days before turning 81. Born 27 October 1945 in Caetés, Pernambuco, Lula is a former metalworker and union leader who co-founded the Workers' Party, or PT, 46 years ago, and has now served three terms.
Lula was born into poverty in Brazil's arid northeast and moved with his family to São Paulo as a child. He worked from age 12, trained as a lathe operator and lost the little finger of his left hand in a press accident at 19. In the late 1970s, he led metalworkers' strikes that defied the military dictatorship, and in 1980 he co-founded the PT. He lost presidential campaigns in 1989, 1994 and 1998 before winning the presidency 24 years ago in 2002.
He served as president from 2003 to 2010 during a commodity boom that lifted millions through Bolsa Família, raised the minimum wage in real terms, opened universities to the poor and helped Brazil pay off the IMF. He left office with approval above 80 percent and enough political capital to elect Dilma Rousseff.
The Conviction and Comeback
Lula's political fall came in the Lava Jato, or Car Wash, investigation. Judge Sérgio Moro convicted him 9 years ago in 2017 of receiving a beachfront apartment as a bribe. He entered prison 8 years ago in April 2018 and spent 580 days behind bars, barred from the 2018 election. In 2021, 5 years ago, the Supreme Court annulled the convictions, ruling that Moro had been biased. The annulment restored Lula's political rights, and he returned to office 3 years ago on 1 January 2023 after beating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 in the tightest presidential race in Brazil's history, 50.9 to 49.1.
The comeback presidency has been harder than the legend. Approval stands at 45 percent against 51 percent disapproval, and his rejection rate is near 50 percent, the highest in the field. Final-week polls give him the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro, with Datafolha showing 40 to 36, and a runoff inside the margin of error.
The Campaign Framework
Lula has framed the race as a defense of democracy against the movement of a convicted coup plotter, while his opponent frames it as a referendum on an octogenarian machine politician who has been in public life for half a century. The first presidential debate of the campaign never happened because both front-runners stayed away, each calculating he had more to lose than to win. Lula leads the first round in every in-person poll and leads no runoff simulation beyond the margin of error.
Why This Matters:
Brazil faces a choice between institutional continuity under an aging politician with a complex legal history and the possibility of renewed direction on the crime crisis that now tops voter concerns. Lula's underwater approval ratings and near-majority rejection levels suggest significant voter dissatisfaction despite his first-round polling advantage. The annulment of his corruption convictions by the same Supreme Court system that just cleared Bolsonaro campaign materials raises questions about institutional independence that resonate beyond this election cycle. With crime driving the political conversation and both leading candidates avoiding direct debate, voters are left weighing a half-century political career against demands for fresh approaches to security failures. The margin-of-error runoff projections indicate a deeply divided electorate making a consequential choice about governance, accountability, and public safety.