Crime has emerged as the top election concern for Brazilians ahead of the October presidential vote. Residents are seeking tougher approaches to gangs and security, a clear demand from a populace grappling with national decay.
The Supreme Court, however, recently ruled that campaign leaflets featuring former president Jair Bolsonaro do not violate election laws. This decision removed a potential legal hurdle for a voice often at odds with the entrenched political class.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s current president, now seeks a fourth term at age 80, representing a half-century of an unchanging political machine.
The People's Crisis
The pervasive issue of crime is shaping candidate promises and policy emphasis, reflecting the deep anxieties of the native working class.
Lula, born 27 October 1945 in Caetés, Pernambuco, rose from poverty as a metalworker and union leader, co-founding the Workers’ Party, or PT, 46 years ago. His long tenure in public life, including three previous terms, highlights the enduring grip of a specific political faction.
During his 2003-2010 presidency, a commodity boom allowed for programs like Bolsa Família and a raised minimum wage, while universities opened to the poor. Brazil also paid off the IMF, aligning with international financial structures.
Elite Maneuvers
Lula’s political fall came 9 years ago during the Lava Jato, or Car Wash, investigation, when Judge Sérgio Moro convicted him in 2017 of receiving a beachfront apartment as a bribe. He spent 580 days behind bars starting 8 years ago, barred from the 2018 election.
Yet, 5 years ago, the Supreme Court annulled these convictions, ruling that Moro had been biased. This institutional intervention restored Lula’s political rights, paving the way for his return to power.
He returned to office 3 years ago on 1 January 2023, after narrowly beating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 in the tightest presidential race in Brazil’s history, 50.9 to 49.1.
This comeback presidency hasn't been easy; approval stands at 45 percent against 51 percent disapproval, with his rejection rate near 50 percent, the highest in the field.
The Choice Ahead
Lula has framed the current race as a defense of democracy against a convicted coup plotter, a narrative often echoed by regime media.
His opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, frames it as a referendum on an octogenarian machine politician who has been in public life for half a century, a perspective resonating with those wary of entrenched power.
The first presidential debate of the campaign never happened, as both front-runners stayed away, each calculating he had more to lose than to win, thus avoiding direct accountability to the people.
Final-week polls show Lula leading the first round against Flávio Bolsonaro, with Datafolha indicating 40 to 36, and a runoff inside the margin of error. Lula leads the first round in every in-person poll but leads no runoff simulation beyond the margin of error.