Brazil’s first-round presidential vote is set for October 4, and recent polls put neither leading candidate near an outright win. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are competing for an office with wide reach. Voters will also choose all 27 state governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. One ballot, a whole stack of institutions.
The ballot and the machinery
A Quaest poll released Monday put Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, at 34%. O Globo and TV Globo commissioned the survey, which researchers conducted from Thursday to Sunday among 2,400 people nationwide; its margin of error was two percentage points. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4%, Renan Santos 3% and Romeu Zema 1%. Five percent were undecided, while 10% said they’d cast a blank or spoiled ballot or abstain.
The same poll put a possible October 25 runoff at 42% apiece. A separate Nexus poll for BTG Pactual gave Lula 42% and Bolsonaro 37% when respondents saw the candidate list. In a projected runoff, Lula led 46% to 44%, within the margin of error. Neither candidate came close to the 50% plus one of valid votes needed to win outright in the first round.
The campaign has also become a contest over misinformation. Bloomberg reported that fake news had sparked a religious dispute, turning it into an unlikely battleground in the final week before the vote. The report described Flávio Bolsonaro supporters at a campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday, but gave no further details about the dispute in the account supplied here.
Lula has cast Senator Bolsonaro as a proxy for a broader right-wing movement. In campaign speeches, he’s called him a “nobody” and shared images linking him to Argentina’s President Javier Milei, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. Bolsonaro is running in place of his father, who was arrested for leading a failed coup after losing to Lula in 2022.
A vote watched beyond Brazil
Lula told the United Nations General Assembly in New York this month, “Brazil does not fit into anyone’s backyard,” and warned of “foreign interference” in the election. His reelection bid comes amid recent right-wing victories across Latin America, which Reuters reported were aided by the return of an emboldened Trump administration in Washington.
Lula has strengthened ties with China, revived Brazil’s leadership role in the BRICS bloc of emerging nations and expanded engagement with Europe. Recent right-wing victories in South America and a confrontational relationship with the Trump administration have left him increasingly isolated in the Western Hemisphere. Some Brazilian diplomats say Washington sees Brazil as the last major obstacle to a sweep of Trump-aligned governments across Latin America.
Lula’s allies have voiced concern that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize the result if Lula wins. They point to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks blaming Lula for the failure of trade negotiations that led to higher US tariffs on Brazilian goods, as well as a failed effort by US officials to travel to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity,” according to the US State Department. The State Department didn’t respond to a request for comment and has denied previous accusations of election interference by Lula’s government.
The foreign-policy stakes are material for Argentina, Brazil’s main trading partner and the region’s largest economy. Brazil absorbs a large share of Argentina’s industrial exports, particularly automobiles; bilateral trade exceeds US$12 billion a year, and Argentina usually runs a deficit because it imports manufactured industrial goods and vehicles. A shift in political alignment, protectionist policies or unilateral liberalization could disrupt trade. Who occupies the Planalto Palace will also heavily shape Mercosur’s future, including whether it emphasizes free-trade agreements or a more closed approach.
Promises, limits and executive orders
At home, Lula’s government has overseen falling inequality and unemployment, while voters remain frustrated by rising living costs. Polarization has gripped the country for nearly a decade. Lula returned to power in 2023, after leaving office with an 87% approval rating; the optimism that helped bring his party to power in 2002 had largely turned to hostility.
State institutions have also shaped the route to office. In 2016, Lula became the principal target of a wide-ranging corruption investigation. He spent 580 days in prison before the court overturned his conviction because of flaws in the investigations and legal proceedings. His arrest kept him from running against Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain who came to power in 2018 promising to undo much of what progressives had achieved since the end of military rule in the 1980s.
The government’s reach was on display Friday, when Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394. It bans nationwide the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of online sports betting and casinos, including licenses granted by state governments. The measure took effect upon publication, reversing a law the government enacted in December 2023 to regulate a sector in which 85 companies operate legally. Congress must ratify it within 120 days, and industry associations asked the Supreme Federal Court to suspend it. Quaest found 62% of Brazilians supported the ban. Lula called online betting “a public health problem”; Bolsonaro called the measure electoral.
The election can change who directs these institutions and which policies they impose. The polls show a close contest, a possible runoff and a public split over the government’s performance: 49% disapproved, while 46% approved. On October 4, the machinery asks the electorate to choose its next operators.