President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva enters Brazil’s first-round vote, four days away, with a narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. He leads a country where living costs still bite, even as inequality and unemployment fall. A Quaest poll released Monday put Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, at 34%. Neither is near the 50% plus one of valid votes needed to win outright on October 4.
A Tight Race, Deep Divides
The survey, commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo, questioned 2,400 people nationwide from Thursday to Sunday, with a margin of error of two percentage points. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado each drew 4%, Renan Santos 3% and Romeu Zema 1%. Five percent were undecided. Another 10% said they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot or abstain. A possible October 25 runoff was tied at 42%.
A separate Nexus poll for BTG Pactual, conducted Friday through Sunday, showed Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37% when respondents saw the candidate list. In a projected runoff, Lula led 46% to 44%, within the margin of error. Quaest also found that 49% disapproved of the government's performance, while 46% approved.
The figures point to a mixed record. Lula’s government has overseen falling inequality and unemployment, but voters remain frustrated by rising living costs. Polarization grips the country. Voters will also elect all 27 state governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate, shaping what any president can actually do.
Misinformation has entered the contest. Bloomberg reported that fake news sparked a religious dispute that emerged as an unlikely battleground in the final week. The outlet also described supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro at a Saturday rally in Rio de Janeiro.
Democracy on the Ballot
Bolsonaro is running in place of his father, former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, whom authorities arrested for leading a failed coup after his 2022 loss to Lula. Three years ago, Bolsonaro supporters attacked government buildings in Brasilia on January 8, 2023. Lula has invoked the attacks to argue that Brazil stands on the front line of a wider struggle against a global right-wing movement. “As long as I am alive, the far right will not return to power in this country,” he has repeatedly said on the trail.
Lula has called his opponent a “nobody” and shared images linking him to Argentina’s President Javier Milei, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. Some progressives have dubbed the senator “Tariflavio,” a reference to his recent US visit to seek Trump’s support.
Observers abroad see more than a national contest. Paulo Abrao, executive director of the progressive think tank Washington Brazil Office, said: “There is a perception among international observers that Brazil is not merely electing a president. Given the country's influence, it is helping to determine which political camp will emerge stronger in the next phase of a global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.”
Interference Concerns and a Betting Ban
Lula’s allies fear the Trump administration might refuse to recognize the result if he wins. They say efforts to interfere are already underway. They point to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks blaming Lula for the collapse of trade talks that led to higher US tariffs on Brazilian goods. They also cite a failed attempt by US officials to travel to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity,” according to the State Department. The department hasn’t responded to a request for comment and has denied earlier accusations of interference.
Last week, 31 Democrats in Congress, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, urged Rubio to respect the result. Their letter voiced “grave concern” over a “sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil.”
The stakes extend to neighboring countries. Brazil is Argentina’s main trading partner, with bilateral trade above US$12 billion a year. Santiago Cafiero, a congressman and former foreign minister in Argentina, said: “If Lula wins, it will create a countercurrent to what has been taking hold in the region and show there is resistance to these right-wing winds.” A European ambassador who asked not to be named said engagement with Brazil would become much harder if human rights were violated in a big way or the Amazon were deforested at scale.
On Friday, Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394, which bans the nationwide operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of online sports betting and casinos, including state-granted licenses. The measure took effect upon publication, though Congress must ratify it within 120 days. Lula called online betting “a public health problem.” Bolsonaro called the move electoral, and industry associations asked the Supreme Federal Court to suspend it. The measure reverses a law enacted in December 2023 to regulate a sector where 85 companies operate legally. Quaest found 62% of Brazilians support the ban.
Why This Matters: Brazil’s vote will decide whether a government that has cut inequality and unemployment keeps its mandate, and how much power it has to govern. Lawmakers and governors will be chosen on the same day. The betting ban shows what’s at stake in a dispute over public regulation: 62% of Brazilians support it, while industry groups are challenging it at the Supreme Federal Court. Concerns about outside pressure matter, too. If the US declines to recognize a Lula win, as his allies fear, Brazil’s democratic institutions would face a test. Europeans and Argentines are watching, along with progressives in Washington, because Brazil’s direction could shape trade, climate cooperation and rights protections across the region.