Four days before Brazilians vote, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by a narrow margin, while 49% of voters disapprove of his government's performance. A Quaest poll released Monday put Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, at 34%. Just 46% said they approve of the government.
Commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo, the survey questioned 2,400 people nationwide from Thursday to Sunday. The margin of error is two percentage points. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4%, Renan Santos got 3% and Romeu Zema 1%. Five percent were undecided. Another 10% said they’d cast a blank or spoiled ballot or abstain.
The Race
Neither leading candidate is close to the 50% plus one of valid votes needed to win outright on October 4. In the Quaest poll, a possible runoff on October 25 is tied at 42%. A separate Nexus poll for BTG Pactual, conducted Friday through Sunday, put Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37%; in a runoff, Lula led 46% to 44%. That’s within the margin of error.
Voters will also choose all 27 state governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate.
Lula’s government has presided over falling inequality and unemployment. Yet voters remain frustrated by rising living costs. The gap between headline gains and household budgets frames the president’s narrow lead.
A Surprise Move on Betting
On Friday, Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394. It bans the nationwide operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of online sports betting and casinos, including licenses granted by state governments. The measure took effect when published. Congress must ratify it within 120 days.
The move reverses a law the government enacted in December 2023 to regulate the sector. Eighty-five companies operate legally under that framework. Lula called online betting “a public health problem.” Bolsonaro called the measure electoral, while industry associations asked the Supreme Federal Court to suspend it. Quaest found that 62% of Brazilians support the ban.
The politics are plain enough. So is the regulatory whiplash: a licensed industry that operated under federal rules for two years now faces prohibition by decree, just days before an election.
Foreign Policy and Sovereignty
At the United Nations General Assembly this month, Lula declared that “Brazil does not fit into anyone’s backyard” and warned of “foreign interference” in the vote. His allies point to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks blaming Lula for the collapse of trade talks that led to higher US tariffs on Brazilian goods. They also cite a failed effort by US officials to travel to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity,” according to the State Department. The department didn’t respond to a request for comment and has denied earlier accusations of election interference by Lula’s government.
Thirty-one Democrats in Congress, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, urged Rubio to respect Brazil’s result. Their letter cited “grave concern” over a “sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil.” Before the 2022 election, then-President Joe Biden sent his CIA director to tell then-President Bolsonaro not to mess with elections, sources told Reuters at the time.
Lula has strengthened ties with China and revived Brazil’s leadership role in the BRICS bloc. Recent right-wing wins in Chile, Colombia, Honduras and Peru, along with a confrontational relationship with Washington, have left him increasingly isolated in the Western Hemisphere. Some Brazilian diplomats say Washington sees Brazil as the last major obstacle to a sweep of Trump-aligned governments across Latin America.
Progressives describe the contest differently. Paulo Abrao of the Washington Brazil Office said it will help determine “which political camp will emerge stronger in the next phase of a global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.” But Lula’s opposition to Trump and US tariffs appears to have lifted his approval ratings among some voters, meaning the tariff fight has cut both ways.
Trade Stakes Next Door
Brazil is Argentina’s main trading partner and the region’s largest economy. Bilateral trade exceeds US$12 billion a year, and Argentina usually runs a deficit. Buenos Aires Times journalist Daniel Vittar reported that protectionist policies or unilateral liberalization could disrupt that trade. Whether Mercosur emphasizes free-trade agreements or a more closed approach will depend heavily on who occupies the Planalto Palace.
Why This Matters:
Brazil’s vote is more than a personality contest. It will shape whether the region’s largest economy leans toward open markets or a more closed, state-directed model, while Mercosur’s direction hangs on that choice. The betting ban shows how quickly rules can change for a regulated industry, and 85 licensed firms now depend on Congress and the courts. Cost-of-living frustration, a 49% disapproval rating and a tied runoff suggest voters are weighing results against rhetoric. For Argentina, with over US$12 billion in annual trade at stake, and for investors watching institutional stability, the coming weeks will show how predictable Brazilian policy really is.