Brazil will hold its first-round presidential vote on October 4, with rising living costs weighing on voters and neither leading candidate close to winning outright. A Quaest poll commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, at 34%. Five percent were undecided; 10% said they’d cast a blank or spoiled ballot or abstain. The poll found 49% disapproved of the government’s performance, while 46% approved.
The cost of the vote
The Quaest survey ran from Thursday to Sunday among 2,400 people nationwide, with a margin of error of two percentage points. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4%, Renan Santos received 3%, and Romeu Zema received 1%. In a possible October 25 runoff, the candidates tied at 42%.
A separate Nexus poll for BTG Pactual put Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37% when respondents saw the candidate list. In a projected runoff, Lula led 46% to 44%, within the margin of error. Neither poll showed a candidate close to the 50% plus one of valid votes required to win in the first round.
Voters also face races for all 27 state governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. The election comes after Lula’s government presided over falling inequality and unemployment, even as voters remained frustrated by rising living costs.
Betting firms and state power
On Friday, Lula signed Provisional Measure 1,394, banning the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of online sports betting and casinos nationwide. The ban covers licenses granted by state governments and took effect upon publication. Congress must ratify it within 120 days.
The measure reverses a law the government enacted in December 2023 to regulate a sector where 85 companies operate legally. Lula called online betting “a public health problem.” Bolsonaro called the ban electoral, while industry associations asked the Supreme Federal Court to suspend it. Quaest found 62% of Brazilians supported the ban.
The campaign has also turned into a contest over misinformation. Bloomberg reported that a religious dispute sparked by fake news had emerged as an unlikely battleground in the final week before the vote. It also described Bolsonaro supporters at a campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday.
Regional stakes and outside pressure
Brazil’s political direction carries direct trade consequences for Argentina. Brazil is Argentina’s main trading partner and the region’s largest economy, absorbing a large share of Argentina’s industrial exports, particularly automobiles. Bilateral trade exceeds US$12 billion a year, and Argentina usually runs a deficit because it imports manufactured industrial goods and vehicles.
The future of Mercosur also depends heavily on who occupies the Planalto Palace. The bloc’s direction is at issue between free-trade agreements and a more closed approach. Relations between the Casa Rosada and Brasília include ideological tensions and direct clashes between Lula and President Javier Milei.
Lula has strengthened ties with China, revived Brazil’s leadership role in the BRICS bloc and expanded engagement with Europe. Some Brazilian diplomats say Washington views Brazil as the last major obstacle to a sweep of Trump-aligned governments across Latin America. Lula’s allies have cited US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s remarks blaming Lula for failed trade negotiations that led to higher US tariffs on Brazilian goods, along with a failed effort by US officials to travel to Brazil to “discuss electoral integrity.” The State Department denied previous accusations of election interference by Lula’s government and didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Lula told the United Nations General Assembly this month, “Brazil does not fit into anyone’s backyard,” and warned of “foreign interference” in the election. Last week, 31 Democrats in Congress, including US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, urged Rubio to respect Brazil’s election result, expressing “grave concern” over what they called a “sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil.”